"Every wave of tech changes the world...and gets regulated."
Benedict Evans is an independent analyst with a history in consulting, venture capital, and strategy. He publishes essays read by tech insiders and enthusiasts, and every year he produces a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.
"This year, ‘Standing on the shoulders of giants’ looks at what it means that 4B people have a smartphone; we connected everyone, and now we wonder what the Next Big Thing is, but meanwhile, connecting everyone means we connected all the problems. Tech is becoming a regulated industry, but we don’t really know what that will mean."
While the video of the presentation hasn't been released yet, the deck (link below) paints an interesting picture of what's going on in the tech industry this decade. Some takeaways that stuck out to me in the report:
1. EC is huge at $500B in the US but it's only 15% of the total addressable market of retail. While more people are shopping online, the offline experience is still important for many shoppers.
2. Advertising is expanding its reach but mostly in product ads. Google Shopping is taking over more space in the Google Network, and Amazon is now taxing product search as they have a $10B search ad business.
3. We're seeing slower growth for Netflix and a continuing decline in paid TV, but YouTube and other streaming entertainment services like Twitch continue to gain popularity.
4. There's more and more investment outside the US, which we're seeing real-time here in Greater Southeast Asia.
5. The next smartphone could be AR and to take it one step further, high tech contact lenses and other AI-powered devices may end up dominating the market.
6. Regulation and policies have always been at the forefront of tech. In fact, venture capital and Silicon Valley exists due to regulations from the US government, and things don't seem to be changing anytime soon. Media will continue to highlight the role of tech when it comes to politics and regulations.
Take a read when you get a chance as it's chock-full of interesting data points: https://www.ben-evans.com/presentations
- By Natalie Feng Lin, Analyst
