Search
朋友做了這個世界各地領袖民望與疫情關係圖，非常詳細，有positive correlation 亦有 negative，可用來參考美國最新民情。簡單而言，疫情案例越多，支持度其實越高。
⏺科技巨頭與新冷戰民族主義
https://www.patreon.com/posts/41637709
▶️譚德塞可以代表埃塞俄比亞？
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMoZKDre9W8
有中環手足，讓數據說話：
//話說中泰證券嘅研究團隊起4月24日公佈咗一份驚人嘅研究報告 “中國失業率有多高？”，講中咗中共嘅要害！ 份報告當然好快就撤回啦，幾日後研究所所長李迅雷因為“希望專注於研究” 冇再坐嗰個位啦。 香港傳媒之前有報但係份報告仲講咗啲咩呢？
- 官方公佈嘅失業率與現實經濟狀況不符；
- 受武漢肺炎疫情影響估計有多達7,000萬人失業 (官方數據話今年3月份比起上年12月係多左3百萬人失業)；
- 實際失業率約為20.5% (官方話係5.9%)；
- 官方數據係唔識得計嗰2.9億農民工；
- 其他國家公佈嘅經濟數據同失業率係會有negative correlation (eg. 國家用電量 vs 失業率)， (但中國同全世界梗係唔同啦， 佢嘅數據起上30年係有充分嘅“ 中國特色”)；
- 佢例子都有畀 ， 譬如第一季度調查失業率上升幅度好小，但中國農民工外出務工數同比減少了超過5,000萬 。
其實其他國際研究機構及權威經濟報章都有類似嘅預測:
- (4月22日) The Economist's EIU 分析員估計官方失業率高點會嚟起大概10% 但係呢個唔計 2.9億農民工。分析員亦都有提到 2008至2009年金融風暴官方失業率係9.4% 但今日嘅經濟比當年差好多。
- (4月7日) UBS Securities 估計有8,000萬人(服務，工業，建築) 因為疫情已經失業 ， 遲啲可能再多1千萬人。
加返個總結先：有政府，唔驚！相信政府！//
▶️ 與真・沈大師沈振盈對談「末日經濟學」https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjxXKE6wd8Y
【#最新擴疫邏輯題：林鄭月娥國際觀透露的秘密】
1. 林鄭月娥2月18日：「香港和澳門兩地情況不同、人口不同、和內地的聯繫不同，如香港有 14 個口岸，澳門有 3 個口岸，兩地當局都分別以最穩妥的方法處理，不希望外界作比較。」
2. 林鄭月娥3月1日：「香港與內地毗鄰，人員往來頻繁，而我們的城市密度又高，但確診數字比亞洲區內的韓國(3526)、日本(239)和新加坡(102)低，亦遠低於出現大規模感染的意大利(1128)和伊朗(593)...... 香港的防控疫情工作堅持以科學為證及理據為本，以目前共95宗確診數字看，措施是有效的。」
上述觀點，反映林鄭月娥怎樣的國際觀？
1. 香港與南韓、新加坡、日本、意大利和伊朗的可比較程度，都比「不希望作比較」的澳門為高，前者都是國家，後者是中國特區，反映林鄭月娥潛藏港獨思想十分明顯。
2. 「香港與內地毗鄰」是林鄭月娥暗示香港疫情應該失控的前提，反映林鄭月娥心裏完全明白疫情源頭和問題所在，和此刻北京吹風說「武漢肺炎另有源頭」背道而馳，這是洩露國家機密。
3. 同樣與中國毗鄰的俄羅斯、蒙古、北韓分別只有2、0、0（官方數字）確診，根據林鄭月娥邏輯，措施應屬「超級有效」，而他們的措施，正是及早全面封關。香港沒有仿效，卻刻意與「與中國毗鄰」的國際案例比較，可見香港的防控疫情工作並非「堅持以科學為證及理據為本」。
4. 林鄭月娥早前批評香港社會沒有「同心抗疫」；現在說政府抗疫措施有效；但政府措施又不同真正有效的中國鄰居（俄羅斯、蒙古、北韓）；可見香港疫情未大爆發的原因，全在於民間不信政府、以由下而上的群眾智慧抗疫，與林鄭月娥的關係，構成negative correlation。
#完
Rayner: In today’s episode, I have a question from Zac, who asked, "Hey Rayner, how do you manage correlations in your trading?" So, before I talk about how I do it, I want to share with you two things about correlations that most traders don't quite get.
[00:00:30] Number one is this, correlations are always changing. If you look back in time, in the '08, '09 financial crisis, you will see that the stock markets are declining, going down, right? And if you look at the bond markets, it's actually going up. Because money is taken out of the stock markets, into the bond markets as a safe haven. So, that is why you have this negative correlation between the bonds and the stock markets.
But if you look at, let's say, recent times, you would notice that both the stock and bond markets are actually moving up in tandem. You can see that the correlation has changed over the last few years.
[00:01:00] So, that's the first point that I want to bring across, is that number one, correlations, they change over time. So what is correlated in the past, does not mean that the correlation will hold in the future, okay?
And number two is this, is that correlations can change depending on the timeframe you're looking at. Let's say, for example, you trade the FX markets, you know the Eurodollar, and pound dollar, and they appear to be correlated on a daily timeframe. But if you go down to, let's say, the lower timeframe, you might see that hey, they're actually negatively correlated.
[00:01:30] So, the second thing that I want to point out is that correlations also depend on the timeframe you're looking at. So that's two things that I want to bring across. So now to share with you, how do you manage correlations in a market? Let me share with you a few things that you can use. The first thing is, you can divide your risk accordingly.
[00:02:00] So, for example, let's say you are bullish on the Euro. You are thinking about buying either Euro Aussie or Euro New Zealand and you can't decide. What you can do is split your risk across this two currency pairs. For example, if you usually risk like 2% on each trade. Now what you can do is risk 1% on Euro Aussie and 1% on Euro New Zealand. Right? That's the first thing you can do. Split the risk.
[00:02:30] The second thing you can do is to, what I call, pick the strongest market to long and short the weakest market. So if for example, Euro Aussie and Euro New Zealand, you realize that Euro Aussie is a stronger currency to long compared to New Zealand, maybe because the moving rate is steeper or maybe because Euro Aussie is the first market that breaks out.
What you can do is, long the strongest and ignore the second tier currency pair. That's another way you can go about it.
[00:03:00] And the final thing to share is understanding the markets you're trading. For example, which markets are correlated, which are not correlated, how strong the correlation, how weak their correlation and stuff like that. It's really based on understanding the markets, watching the markets, and then knowing which are the different correlations out there because it's always changing as I've shared with you earlier. Understanding the markets would definitely help you as a trader, dealing with correlations.
And so, that's pretty much it for this week's question. If you have anything that you want me to answer, just let me know in the comments section below, all right, and I'll get back to you. With that said, head down to my website, tradingwithrayner.com where you'll learn trading strategies that work right so that you can get rich slow.
If you want more actionable trading tips and strategies, go to https://www.tradingwithrayner.com
Thanks for watching!
FOLLOW ME AT:
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/forextradingwithrayner
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/rayner_teo
My YouTube channel: http://bit.ly/2EFg5VN
negative correlation 在 Is it correct to refer to a negative correlation as an 'inverse ... 的推薦與評價
In the case of an inverse relationship y=1/x (which is nonlinear), random sampling of these values certainly be negatively correlated (assuming ... ... <看更多>
相關內容