Brexit.....Shifting Sands
Next Friday, the UK needs to decide on their own destination to be in Europe or not; and if they (legislators) decide to exit from EU, what kind of exit that they are comfortable with. The challenge lies in the fact that they cant decide uniletarally. EU Parliment must be consulted (using a very diplomatic word). In reality, they have to get the Continent to agree to their proposal of exit mechanism.
I had great pleasure attending the briefing on Brexit and its impact on UK, EU and US. The briefing was conducted by the Chief Economist of one of the biggest banks in the world hearquarted in London. Her data and analysis are superb.
Some of the insights that I can conclude from this analytical briefing:
a. The issue of foriegn immigaration has become one of the most accute problems nowadays. Brexit is just the outcome of this hard reality. UK is not alone. Looking into the the current political map of EU, there are many other countries which are run by the populist government which includes Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Hungry, etc.
b. The Brexit will not only hurt UK, but also a few EU countries which have big exposure to UK (export market).
c.At the times of uncertainty, the market tends to price in the uncertainty element of material changes. This will also hurt the market.
d. The position of London which has been known as the services centre for many centuries when it loses its passporting advantage after Brexit. Which city is the next candidate?
e. The contagious effect of Brexit meaning which country is the most probable candidate to follow the step of UK. All indications are pointing towards Italy.
f. A new curency market and tough fight of USD vs. GBP vs. Euro (not only GBP will be implicated but Euro too)
g. The most alarming signal is the rise of unilatarian vis-a-vis bilateral and community form of the world. It is easy and populist to call for exclusiveness but it is hard to believe in inclusiveness and sharing economy.
While we are not sure what would happen to UK, EU and the world after next Friday, the May goverment and all the British members of the Parliament are having sleepless night.
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