【#拜登就職演說全文】★中英版本★
資料來源:美國白宮新聞稿
This is America’s day. This is democracy’s day.
A day of history and hope. Of renewal and resolve.
Through a crucible for the ages America has been tested anew and America has risen to the challenge.
Today, we celebrate the triumph not of a candidate, but of a cause, the cause of democracy.
The will of the people has been heard and the will of the people has been heeded.
We have learned again that democracy is precious.
Democracy is fragile.
And at this hour, my friends, democracy has prevailed.
So now, on this hallowed ground where just days ago violence sought to shake this Capitol’s very foundation, we come together as one nation, under God, indivisible, to carry out the peaceful transfer of power as we have for more than two centuries.
We look ahead in our uniquely American way – restless, bold, optimistic – and set our sights on the nation we know we can be and we must be.
I thank my predecessors of both parties for their presence here.
I thank them from the bottom of my heart.
You know the resilience of our Constitution and the strength of our nation.
As does President Carter, who I spoke to last night but who cannot be with us today, but whom we salute for his lifetime of service.
I have just taken the sacred oath each of these patriots took — an oath first sworn by George Washington.
But the American story depends not on any one of us, not on some of us, but on all of us.
On “We the People” who seek a more perfect Union.
This is a great nation and we are a good people.
Over the centuries through storm and strife, in peace and in war, we have come so far. But we still have far to go.
We will press forward with speed and urgency, for we have much to do in this winter of peril and possibility.
Much to repair.
Much to restore.
Much to heal.
Much to build.
And much to gain.
Few periods in our nation’s history have been more challenging or difficult than the one we’re in now.
A once-in-a-century virus silently stalks the country.
It’s taken as many lives in one year as America lost in all of World War II.
Millions of jobs have been lost.
Hundreds of thousands of businesses closed.
A cry for racial justice some 400 years in the making moves us. The dream of justice for all will be deferred no longer.
A cry for survival comes from the planet itself. A cry that can’t be any more desperate or any more clear.
And now, a rise in political extremism, white supremacy, domestic terrorism that we must confront and we will defeat.
To overcome these challenges – to restore the soul and to secure the future of America – requires more than words.
It requires that most elusive of things in a democracy:
Unity.
Unity.
In another January in Washington, on New Year’s Day 1863, Abraham Lincoln signed the Emancipation Proclamation.
When he put pen to paper, the President said, “If my name ever goes down into history it will be for this act and my whole soul is in it.”
My whole soul is in it.
Today, on this January day, my whole soul is in this:
Bringing America together.
Uniting our people.
And uniting our nation.
I ask every American to join me in this cause.
Uniting to fight the common foes we face:
Anger, resentment, hatred.
Extremism, lawlessness, violence.
Disease, joblessness, hopelessness.
With unity we can do great things. Important things.
We can right wrongs.
We can put people to work in good jobs.
We can teach our children in safe schools.
We can overcome this deadly virus.
We can reward work, rebuild the middle class, and make health care
secure for all.
We can deliver racial justice.
We can make America, once again, the leading force for good in the world.
I know speaking of unity can sound to some like a foolish fantasy.
I know the forces that divide us are deep and they are real.
But I also know they are not new.
Our history has been a constant struggle between the American ideal that we are all created equal and the harsh, ugly reality that racism, nativism, fear, and demonization have long torn us apart.
The battle is perennial.
Victory is never assured.
Through the Civil War, the Great Depression, World War, 9/11, through struggle, sacrifice, and setbacks, our “better angels” have always prevailed.
In each of these moments, enough of us came together to carry all of us forward.
And, we can do so now.
History, faith, and reason show the way, the way of unity.
We can see each other not as adversaries but as neighbors.
We can treat each other with dignity and respect.
We can join forces, stop the shouting, and lower the temperature.
For without unity, there is no peace, only bitterness and fury.
No progress, only exhausting outrage.
No nation, only a state of chaos.
This is our historic moment of crisis and challenge, and unity is the path forward.
And, we must meet this moment as the United States of America.
If we do that, I guarantee you, we will not fail.
We have never, ever, ever failed in America when we have acted together.
And so today, at this time and in this place, let us start afresh.
All of us.
Let us listen to one another.
Hear one another.
See one another.
Show respect to one another.
Politics need not be a raging fire destroying everything in its path.
Every disagreement doesn’t have to be a cause for total war.
And, we must reject a culture in which facts themselves are manipulated and even manufactured.
My fellow Americans, we have to be different than this.
America has to be better than this.
And, I believe America is better than this.
Just look around.
Here we stand, in the shadow of a Capitol dome that was completed amid the Civil War, when the Union itself hung in the balance.
Yet we endured and we prevailed.
Here we stand looking out to the great Mall where Dr. King spoke of his dream.
Here we stand, where 108 years ago at another inaugural, thousands of protestors tried to block brave women from marching for the right to vote.
Today, we mark the swearing-in of the first woman in American history elected to national office – Vice President Kamala Harris.
Don’t tell me things can’t change.
Here we stand across the Potomac from Arlington National Cemetery, where heroes who gave the last full measure of devotion rest in eternal peace.
And here we stand, just days after a riotous mob thought they could use violence to silence the will of the people, to stop the work of our democracy, and to drive us from this sacred ground.
That did not happen.
It will never happen.
Not today.
Not tomorrow.
Not ever.
To all those who supported our campaign I am humbled by the faith you have placed in us.
To all those who did not support us, let me say this: Hear me out as we move forward. Take a measure of me and my heart.
And if you still disagree, so be it.
That’s democracy. That’s America. The right to dissent peaceably, within the guardrails of our Republic, is perhaps our nation’s greatest strength.
Yet hear me clearly: Disagreement must not lead to disunion.
And I pledge this to you: I will be a President for all Americans.
I will fight as hard for those who did not support me as for those who did.
Many centuries ago, Saint Augustine, a saint of my church, wrote that a people was a multitude defined by the common objects of their love.
What are the common objects we love that define us as Americans?
I think I know.
Opportunity.
Security.
Liberty.
Dignity.
Respect.
Honor.
And, yes, the truth.
Recent weeks and months have taught us a painful lesson.
There is truth and there are lies.
Lies told for power and for profit.
And each of us has a duty and responsibility, as citizens, as Americans, and especially as leaders – leaders who have pledged to honor our Constitution and protect our nation — to defend the truth and to defeat the lies.
I understand that many Americans view the future with some fear and trepidation.
I understand they worry about their jobs, about taking care of their families, about what comes next.
I get it.
But the answer is not to turn inward, to retreat into competing factions, distrusting those who don’t look like you do, or worship the way you do, or don’t get their news from the same sources you do.
We must end this uncivil war that pits red against blue, rural versus urban, conservative versus liberal.
We can do this if we open our souls instead of hardening our hearts.
If we show a little tolerance and humility.
If we’re willing to stand in the other person’s shoes just for a moment.
Because here is the thing about life: There is no accounting for what fate will deal you.
There are some days when we need a hand.
There are other days when we’re called on to lend one.
That is how we must be with one another.
And, if we are this way, our country will be stronger, more prosperous, more ready for the future.
My fellow Americans, in the work ahead of us, we will need each other.
We will need all our strength to persevere through this dark winter.
We are entering what may well be the toughest and deadliest period of the virus.
We must set aside the politics and finally face this pandemic as one nation.
I promise you this: as the Bible says weeping may endure for a night but joy cometh in the morning.
We will get through this, together
The world is watching today.
So here is my message to those beyond our borders: America has been tested and we have come out stronger for it.
We will repair our alliances and engage with the world once again.
Not to meet yesterday’s challenges, but today’s and tomorrow’s.
We will lead not merely by the example of our power but by the power of our example.
We will be a strong and trusted partner for peace, progress, and security.
We have been through so much in this nation.
And, in my first act as President, I would like to ask you to join me in a moment of silent prayer to remember all those we lost this past year to the pandemic.
To those 400,000 fellow Americans – mothers and fathers, husbands and wives, sons and daughters, friends, neighbors, and co-workers.
We will honor them by becoming the people and nation we know we can and should be.
Let us say a silent prayer for those who lost their lives, for those they left behind, and for our country.
Amen.
This is a time of testing.
We face an attack on democracy and on truth.
A raging virus.
Growing inequity.
The sting of systemic racism.
A climate in crisis.
America’s role in the world.
Any one of these would be enough to challenge us in profound ways.
But the fact is we face them all at once, presenting this nation with the gravest of responsibilities.
Now we must step up.
All of us.
It is a time for boldness, for there is so much to do.
And, this is certain.
We will be judged, you and I, for how we resolve the cascading crises of our era.
Will we rise to the occasion?
Will we master this rare and difficult hour?
Will we meet our obligations and pass along a new and better world for our children?
I believe we must and I believe we will.
And when we do, we will write the next chapter in the American story.
It’s a story that might sound something like a song that means a lot to me.
It’s called “American Anthem” and there is one verse stands out for me:
“The work and prayers
of centuries have brought us to this day
What shall be our legacy?
What will our children say?…
Let me know in my heart
When my days are through
America
America
I gave my best to you.”
Let us add our own work and prayers to the unfolding story of our nation.
If we do this then when our days are through our children and our children’s children will say of us they gave their best.
They did their duty.
They healed a broken land.
My fellow Americans, I close today where I began, with a sacred oath.
Before God and all of you I give you my word.
I will always level with you.
I will defend the Constitution.
I will defend our democracy.
I will defend America.
I will give my all in your service thinking not of power, but of possibilities.
Not of personal interest, but of the public good.
And together, we shall write an American story of hope, not fear.
Of unity, not division.
Of light, not darkness.
An American story of decency and dignity.
Of love and of healing.
Of greatness and of goodness.
May this be the story that guides us.
The story that inspires us.
The story that tells ages yet to come that we answered the call of history.
We met the moment.
That democracy and hope, truth and justice, did not die on our watch but thrived.
That our America secured liberty at home and stood once again as a beacon to the world.
That is what we owe our forebearers, one another, and generations to follow.
So, with purpose and resolve we turn to the tasks of our time.
Sustained by faith.
Driven by conviction.
And, devoted to one another and to this country we love with all our hearts.
May God bless America and may God protect our troops.
Thank you, America.
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★ 中文翻譯:資料來源中央社CNA
這是美國的一天,這是民主的一天,是歷史和希望的一天,是更新與決心的一天。美國幾個世代經過熔爐的考驗之後,如今再次遭到試煉,而且已再次奮起應付挑戰。今天,我們慶祝的不是一位候選人的勝利,而是一個奮鬥目標的勝利,是為民主的奮鬥。人民的意志被聽見了,人民的意志得到了關注。
我們再次學到,民主是珍貴的,民主是脆弱的,而在此刻,朋友們,民主已然勝利。短短幾天之前,還有暴力試圖撼動國會的根基,但今天我們齊聚這個莊嚴的所在,以一個在上帝之下不可分裂的國家,展開權力的和平轉移,一如我國200多年的傳統。
我們要用美國特有的方式,也就是不停歇、勇敢、樂觀的方式展望未來。放眼我們可以成為、也必須成為的國家。我謝謝今天蒞臨的兩黨前任總統,我衷心感謝,你們知道我國憲法的韌性,以及我們國家的力量。卡特總統(Jimmy Carter)也是,我昨晚與他通了電話,但他不克前來。我們為他畢生的奉獻向他致敬。
我剛才跟這幾位愛國者一樣鄭重宣誓,一篇最初由華盛頓宣讀的誓詞。然而,美國故事靠的不是我們任何一個人,或一部分人,而是我們全體。它靠的是「我們人民」,在尋求一個更好的合眾國的人民。這是個偉大的國家,我們是一群良善的人。
經歷過去幾個世紀的風雨和衝突、和平與戰爭,我們走過很長一段路,但前方還有很長一段路要走。我們將快速緊急前行,因為在這個危險與機會的冬天,我們有很多事要做。有很多需要修補、需要恢復、需要癒合。有許多需要建設,也可以有很多收穫。
在我國歷史上,很少人或很少時刻面臨著比我們目前更大的挑戰或困難。百年一見、無聲無息蔓延整個國家的病毒,在一年之內奪走的人命,跟美國在第二次世界大戰犧牲的總人數一樣多。數百萬工作機會流失,成千上萬企業關門。
400年來的種族正義的呼聲感動著我們,全民同享公義的夢想將不再拖後。地球生存的呼聲再急迫不過,也再清楚不過。如今政治極端主義、白人至上主義和本土恐怖主義的興起,讓我們有必要起來面對並將它們擊倒。
克服這些挑戰、恢復美國靈魂和鞏固未來需要的不只是話語,而是民主當中最難以捉摸的部分,那就是團結一心,團結一心。
另一個一月天,在1863年開年之時,林肯總統簽署解放奴隸宣言。讓我引述他在下筆時所說的話:「如果我留名青史,將會是因為這份宣言,以及我投注其中的全心全意。」
今天,同樣在一月裡,我全心全意投注於此:團結全體國人,團結整個國家。我請求所有美國人加入,和我一起努力,團結對抗我們共同的敵人:怨氣、不滿、仇恨、極端主義、目無法紀的行為、暴力、疾病、失業和無助。
團結一心,我們能夠成就偉大事業、重要的事情。我們可以糾正錯誤,可以讓民眾找到好的工作,可以在安全的校園教導孩子,可以克服這個致命的病毒。我們可以讓工作獲得報酬,重建中產階級,可以提供全民健保,可以兌現種族正義,讓美國再次成為世界主要的良善力量。
我明白,這個時候談論團結聽起來像愚昧的天方夜譚,我知道分裂我們的力量又深又真切,但我也知道這些力量不是現在才出現。美國向來在人人平等這個理想,和國家長期被種族主義、本土主義、恐懼和妖魔化分化的醜陋現實之間掙扎。這個征戰從未止息,勝利並無保證。
從南北戰爭、大蕭條、世界大戰到911恐攻,儘管歷經奮鬥、犧牲和挫折,良善的天使向來都會勝利。每當遇到這種時刻,我們都會有足夠的人團結一心,讓全國一起向前,我們現在也可以這麼做。
歷史、信仰和理性指向一條明路,一條團結之路。我們可以不把彼此當成敵人,而是鄰居。我們可以尊嚴和尊重彼此相待,可以同心協力,停止叫囂,讓溫度冷卻。因為沒有團結就沒有和平,只會留下苦毒與憤怒;不會有進步,只會有讓人厭倦的離譜言行;不會有國家,只會有混亂狀態。
這是我們危機和挑戰的歷史性一刻,而團結是前進的道路,我們必須以合眾國的姿態來面對這一刻,若能做到,我向諸位保證我們不會失敗。當我們團結起來,我們從來就不曾失敗,因此在這一天,在此時此刻,就在這裡,讓我們重新來過,全體一起來。讓我們開始再次彼此聆聽,讓對方說,相互探望,對彼表達尊重。
政治不必像這一團熊熊之火,燒毀一切,歧見不必成為全面戰爭的理由。我們必須摒棄操弄甚至捏造事實的文化,同胞們,我們不能這樣,美國必須不只是這個樣子,而且我相信美國不至淪落至此。
看看四周,我們站在國會大廈圓頂之下,這是南北戰爭時期完成的,當時美國的前途還在未定之天,但我們挺過來了,我們勝利了。我們現在站在此,看著偉大的國家廣場,金恩博士(Martin Luther King Jr.)曾對廣場上的群眾訴說他的夢想。也是在這裡,108年前的另一場就職典禮,數以千計的抗議人士試圖阻撓一群勇敢的婦女遊行爭取投票權。
今天我們見證副總統賀錦麗創造美國歷史,成為第一位擔任國家領導人的女性,別告訴我事情無法改變。
我們站在這裡,隔著波多馬克河(Potomac River)遠眺阿靈頓國家公墓(Arlington National Cemetery),也就是為國捐軀的英雄長眠之地。我們站在這裡,不過幾天前,暴動的群眾以為他們可用暴力箝制民眾的意志,阻撓民主運作,把我們驅逐出這塊聖地。但事情未如他們所願,今天不會,明天也不會,永遠都不會。
每位支持我們參選的民眾,我因你們給予我們的信心感到謙卑。對於沒有支持我們的人,讓我對你們說:未來請聽我說的話,評量我和我的心。如果你們還是不同意,也罷。這就是民主。這就是美國。以平和的方式在我們國家的規範之內表達異議的權利,可能是我國最大的優勢。
但請聽清楚:不同意見絕對不能變成不團結。而且我向各位保證,我要當全體國人的總統。不論你支持我或不支持我,我都將同樣為你們而努力。
好幾個世紀之前,我所屬教會的聖者聖奧古斯丁(Saint Augustine)曾經寫道,人民是個群體,由他們共同喜愛的東西所定義。身為美國人,我們共同喜愛而且能定義我們的東西是什麼?我想我們都知道:機會、安定、自由、尊嚴、尊重、榮譽,是的,還有真相。
最近的幾個星期、幾個月給了我們痛苦的教訓:有真相,也有謊言,為了權力和利益而說的謊言。我們每個人做為公民,做為美國人,特別是身為領導者的人,曾經承諾要遵守憲法、保護我們的國家的領導者,有職責、有責任要捍衛真相、打敗謊言。
我瞭解有許多同胞以害怕、惶恐的心情看待未來。我瞭解他們擔心工作問題。我瞭解他們像我父親那樣,夜裡躺在床上盯著天花板,想著得要有醫療保險、有貸款要付、想著他們的家庭,想著接下來會如何。我跟各位保證,我瞭解。但答案不是退縮,不是進入到彼此競爭的派系,不信任看起來跟你不一樣的人,跟你有不同信仰的人,或者新聞來源不同於你的人。
我們必須結束這場「無禮的戰爭」,它讓紅藍對立、鄉村與都市的民眾對立、保守派與自由派對立。我們可以做到,如果我們敞開心胸,而不是讓我們的心變硬,如果我們展現一些包容和謙虛,如果我們願意為別人設想,就像我母親說的:只要一下子就好,為別人設想。
因為人生就是這樣,你無法預知命運。有些時候,你會需要別人伸出援手,還有些時候,人家會請你伸出援手。就是要這樣,這就是我們為彼此做的事。如果我們這麼做,我們的國家就會更強大、更繁榮,更能為未來做好準備,而且我們還是可以有不同意見。
同胞們,我們在推動未來的工作時,會需要彼此。我們要集舉國之力,才能度過這個黑暗的冬天。我們可能在進入疫情最嚴重、最致命的階段。我們必須把政治擺在一邊,要終於能夠舉國對抗這個大流行,用舉國之力。我向各位保證,就如聖經所說:「一宿雖有哭泣,早晨便必歡呼。」我們將可一起度過,一起!
各位,我跟我在參眾兩院的同事們都瞭解,世人正在觀看,他們今天在看著我們,因此這是我要對國外傳達的訊息:美國受到試煉,而我們因此更為茁壯。我們將修補我們與盟國的關係,再次與世界往來,不是為了面對昨天的挑戰,而是今天和明天的挑戰。我們將不是藉著我們力量的典範來領導,而是憑藉我們典範的力量。我們將會是和平、進步與安定堅強而且可信賴的夥伴。
各位都知道,我們國家經歷了許多事情。我做為總統要做的第一件事,是要請你們跟我一起,為過去一年因疫情喪生的人們默禱,紀念那40萬個同胞,母親、父親、丈夫、妻子、兒子、女兒、朋友、鄰居和同事們。我們要成為我們自知可以成為、而且應該成為的人民和國家,以此榮耀他們。因此我請大家,一起為離世和失去親友的人們,還有我們的國家默禱,……阿們。
各位,這是試煉的時刻。我們面對對民主與真相的攻擊、正在肆虐的病毒、嚴重的不公、系統性的種族歧視、陷入危機的氣候,還有美國在全球的角色問題。其中任何一點都足以對我們構成嚴重的挑戰。但事實是,我們在同時面對這一切,這讓美國挑起我們最重大的責任之一。我們將受到試煉,我們能迎接挑戰嗎?這是大膽的時候,因為有好多事情要做。
而我向各位保證,這點是肯定的:你我將被評判,標準是我們如何解決這個時代一一發生的危機。我們將迎接挑戰。我們能否戰勝這個罕見而艱難的時刻?我們能否履行我們的義務,把一個新的、更好的世界傳給我們的下一代?我相信我們必須那麼做,而且我相信你們也這麼認為。我相信我們會,而且當我們做到,我們將寫下美國歷史偉大的新章節。美國的故事。
這個故事可能像一首對我來說深具意義的歌曲,它叫「美國頌」(American Anthem),它有一段歌詞至少對我來說很特別,它是這樣說的:「數百年的努力與祈禱讓我們來到今天,我們有什麼能傳承下去?我們的子孫會怎麼說?當我的日子結束,讓我內心知曉,美國,美國,我已為你付出最大努力。」
讓我們把我們自己的努力和祈禱,加到我們偉大的國家仍在發展的故事之中。如果我們做到,那麼當我們的日子結束,我們的子孫和他們的子孫會說:「他們付出了最大的努力,他們盡了他們的責任,他們修補了破碎的國家。」
同胞們,我的結語要跟開頭一樣,有個神聖的誓言。在上帝和各位面前,我向你們保證。我將始終開誠布公,我將捍衛憲法,我將捍衛我們的民主。我將捍衛美國,全心全力奉獻為你們服務,心中想的不是權力,而是可能性,不是私利,而是公眾的利益。我們將一起寫下美國希望的故事,而非恐懼的故事,是團結而非分歧,是光明而非黑暗。是禮貌與尊嚴、愛與療癒、偉大與善良的故事。
希望這是引導我們的故事、啟發我們的故事,是能告訴未來的世世代代我們回應歷史的召喚並且回應了時代挑戰的故事。民主與希望、真相與公義沒有在我們的時代衰亡,而是生生不息,美國固守了國內的自由,並且再次成為世界的明燈。這是我們對先人、對彼此和對未來世世代代的責任。
因此,我們要有目標、有決心,把注意力轉向這個時代的任務,靠信心來維持,靠信念來驅使,為彼此和我們全心熱愛的國家而奉獻。願上帝保佑美國,保守我們的三軍。謝謝美國!
同時也有3部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過34萬的網紅從台灣看見世界的故事,也在其Youtube影片中提到,#三立新聞 #消失的國界 #李天怡 ➲ 深度節目及國際時事都在這裡 【從台灣看見世界的故事】 ➲新聞HD直播 三立LIVE新聞 https://goo.gl/7FaFJW ➲追蹤消失的國界粉絲團:http://bit.ly/SETBorderlessWorld ➲驚爆新聞線 爆內幕追真相 ...
「real clear politics」的推薦目錄:
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- 關於real clear politics 在 老天鵝娛樂 Facebook 的最讚貼文
- 關於real clear politics 在 關鍵時刻 Facebook 的最讚貼文
- 關於real clear politics 在 從台灣看見世界的故事 Youtube 的精選貼文
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- 關於real clear politics 在 王炳忠 Youtube 的最佳解答
- 關於real clear politics 在 RealClearPolitics - Home | Facebook 的評價
- 關於real clear politics 在 RealClearPolitics - YouTube 的評價
- 關於real clear politics 在 rcp - Python client for RealClearPolitics. - GitHub 的評價
- 關於real clear politics 在 RealClear Media Has a Secret Facebook Page Filled With Far ... 的評價
real clear politics 在 老天鵝娛樂 Facebook 的最讚貼文
#老鵝嗑瓜時間
如霧般詭譎的情勢啊\( ̄O ̄)
美國總統大選爭議不斷,多家美國媒體宣告拜登勝選,拜登也已發表勝選談話,但總統川普拒絕認輸,9日率先在賓州發起訴訟,10日也在推特PO文,稱目前「取得重大進展」,還說「我們會贏」!而美國民調整合網站「Real Clear Politics(RCP)」目前未標註拜登贏得賓州20張選舉人票,因此拜登只有259票,如此一來,就未跨過270張選舉人票的當選門檻。
by阿鵝
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real clear politics 在 關鍵時刻 Facebook 的最讚貼文
#我最編:大選尚未塵埃落定!!?
📣最新消息都在這👉https://goo.gl/Ui51Xe
●2020美國大選最終選舉結果,依照美國政府機關公告為準。
#川普 #拜登 #RC
real clear politics 在 從台灣看見世界的故事 Youtube 的精選貼文
#三立新聞 #消失的國界 #李天怡
➲ 深度節目及國際時事都在這裡 【從台灣看見世界的故事】
➲新聞HD直播 三立LIVE新聞 https://goo.gl/7FaFJW
➲追蹤消失的國界粉絲團:http://bit.ly/SETBorderlessWorld
➲驚爆新聞線 爆內幕追真相 https://goo.gl/qnrjSt
➲政論第一品牌 新台灣加油 https://goo.gl/Hthr3e
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real clear politics 在 范琪斐 Youtube 的精選貼文
歡迎收看范琪斐的寰宇漫遊,今天的琪斐大放送我們要來談談,2020美國總統大選民調一面倒的說拜登贏川普一大截,川貴人,這次別選了吧?乖~我待會給你買個....樓?大家好,我是范琪斐。中間偏右的《華爾街日報》(Wall Street Journal)聯手中間偏左的《國家廣播公司》(NBC),在「川拜」首場辯論後,到川普確診前這段時間,所做的民調顯示,拜登的支持率高達53%,足足領先川普14個百分點(53%:39%)。真的假的啦~這個幅度也太誇張,我們再參考一下別的。
(10/11公布)美國ABC News和《華盛頓郵報》(The Washington Post),在川普出院後做的最新民調,有54%的選民說會把票投給拜登,大幅領先川普12個百分點(54%:42%)。專門統計各家民調數據的Five Thirty Eight指出,拜登的平均支持率勝過川普10.4個百分點(52.2%:41.9%, 10/10數據)。另一個民調數據集合網站「真清晰政治」(Real Clear Politics)的網站顯示,從10月以來每一家主要民調公司統計出的結果,都是拜登遙遙領先川普,差距在5到16個百分點不等,其中不乏立場較為中間的The Hill和經濟學人。所以平均下來拜登的支持率領先9.8個百分點。(10/9公布)美國權威智庫與民調機構「皮尤研究中心」(Pew Research Center)做出來的結果是,52%的選民打算把票投給拜登,領先川普10個百分點(52%:42%)。
我們找了很多民調,可是只有很少數的說,川普領先拜登, 說很少數,是怕我們川貴人傷心,其實找來找去只有一個。 (10/5公布)英國《每日快報》聯手英美智庫Democracy Institute做的民調顯示,川普支持率在46%,小勝拜登1個百分點(46%:45%)。不過我還是註明一下,這個《每日快報》是英國的右翼八卦報,民主研究所的民調,也沒有被民調界公信力很高的538列入參考的近500家民調就是了, 所以現在大多數民調都顯示,拜登會獲得壓倒性勝利,但川貴人當然不認為他會選輸啊,最近又在那邊「Fake news」、「Fake polls」喊來喊去,民調統統都是假的!這都是幻覺~嚇不倒我的!
先不要笑,川貴人說的是真的,4年前一直到投票日當天早上,民調都還顯示希拉蕊一定會凍蒜,《紐約時報》做了大半年的民調,到選舉當天早上,還在說希拉蕊有80%以上的勝選機會,結果最後被「逆轉」,搖擺州統統被川貴人拿下!2016年的民調,被很多人認為是「壞掉了」、「走鐘了」,完全無法反映出真實民意,今年隨著大選日逼近,也有越來越多人開始質疑,真的假的啊?這幾年來專家們一直試圖釐清,當年的「希拉蕊慘案」到底是怎麼出現的,總之過去四年民調專家就很努力的要找出,民調為什麼會跟開出來的票差那麼多,但真的非常困難,因為變數實在太多了,我們今天就幫大家整理出幾個專家們認為可能的原因。
(一)手機的普及
還記得去年台灣不是在吵「手機民調要不要納入總統初選民調」嗎?美國其實也有類似的問題。美國現在就跟台灣「人手一機」一樣,有時候還兩三機,越來越少人使用家用電話了,而且年輕人、低收入者以及少數族群,都只用手機而已;反觀年長者和白人族群,就會比較依賴室內電話。大數據分析網站《Datanami》就指出,25歲左右的年輕人看到不認識的電話,幾乎都會pass不接;但70歲的長輩們則是每通必接,因此這樣進行的電話民調就很容易往某一族群傾斜。
那用手機民調不行嗎?根據1991年的《電話消費者保護法》(Telephone Consumer Protection Act of 1991;TCPA),美國是禁止「自動撥號系統」打電話給手機用戶的,所以如果要打手機做民調,就必須派出「真人」撥號,這有多麻煩呢?數據顯示,你想獲得1,000個回答,就至少得隨機撥號2萬次,其中大部分是空號,因為手機號碼是私人的,根本不會刊登在電話簿上,這實在太勞民傷財了,很想幫做民調的人馬殺雞一下耶,你們辛苦了。
(二)沉默的多數
每次選舉我都很期待接到民調電話,但大多數美國人可不是這麼想的,可能是因為擔憂個資和隱私外洩,導致選民接電話不敢說出真實意見,或者是覺得,蛤~民調很久欸,老娘才沒空理你。1970年代左右,美國「民調回應率」(Polls response rate)高達80%,你只要打過去人家多半都會回答你,但是根據「皮尤研究中心」最新報告,2018年美國「民調回應率」已經暴跌到6%,等於你打100通電話就只有6個人不掛你電話、願意花時間跟你聊兩句,但你也不知道他是不是講真話。
像2016年的大選,支持川普的選民中,就有一群選前不願意表態的,或者在接受民調時故意說謊的,有些甚至不告訴鄰居他們其實支持川普。《Datanami》表示,這些選民會讓調查的結果失準2%到6%,6%很多欸,根本就是超出誤差範圍了。
(三)網路民調難
啊現在網路那麼發達,用網路做民調不就統統搞定了嗎?事實上恐怕剛好相反。數據顯示美國18-29歲的年輕人,有98%都使用網路,但偏偏這個年齡層的人最不愛投票,拿美國總統大選風向球:2018年美國期中選舉為例,雖然這群年輕人投票率比前一次大幅提高15.7個百分點,但仍是所有年齡層中最低的(35.6%),也就是說,每個人都是「鍵盤投手」,大家網路上搖旗吶喊超熱情,結果投票日當天大家都覺得不差我這一票。另一方面,你在網路上想填幾歲就幾歲,想變性就變性,別國網軍想來帶風向,也不是那麼困難,因此網路民調也非常容易失準。
(四)早期民調誇大
另一個大變數是「早期民調」的準確度很低,因為選民還沒有足夠時間去瞭解候選人到底在幹嘛,但早期民調卻是媒體報導所仰賴的主要資訊來源,結果就是候選人拿來造勢、媒體見獵心喜誇大報導,進而影響到後續選民對候選人表示支持的聲量。例如看到拜登領先,那支持拜登的人講話就會比較大聲,因為他們是「主流」,反之支持川普的人,可能就會比較不敢表達意見,形成「沉默螺旋」。
「皮尤研究中心」也加碼解釋,事實上2016年的全國民調還算準確,(預測希贏3.3%最後贏2.1%),但美國總統大選是以選舉人票為單位,希拉蕊全國總票數高於川普也沒屁用,最後川普拿下所有的搖擺州,入主白宮。而選前的州民調也無法反映出搖擺州的真實民意,地方往往沒有全國性民調那種資源,四年前他們就忽略了在最後關頭,投給川普的搖擺選民數量,也沒有準確掌握未受過大學教育的白人選民,他們到底支持誰,種種因素導致了中西部上演「大驚奇」。還有就是民調公司往往有特定的政黨傾向,最後很可能導向「護主」的結果,讓民調不盡然客觀。
那這些問題2020年還會再重演嗎?老實說,有些變數還是很難避免,《紐約時報》就整理了,和四年前相比,哪些因素可能讓美國民調更精準或更失準。
更精準的第一點就是,搖擺選民減少了。
四年前民調失準的一大因素就是搖擺選民,但今年跟民調人員說:嗯~我還沒想好,的搖擺選民數量變少了,四年前的這個時候,大概還有20%的選民說他們還沒決定要投誰,或是打算投給小黨候選人,但今年這群人的數量只剩一半,而且其中支持川普的人也老早就表態,尤其是搖擺州的白人工人階級選民。
更精準的第二點是,選民教育程度的加權。
大家要有個概念,民調準不準確,完全取決於你抽樣有沒有做到「隨機」,也就是每個族群的意見都要被採納進來,但這真的非常難做到,最後很容易讓民調結果出現偏差。例如在美國,如果你跑去郊區教堂裡做民調,那幾乎可以篤定會獲得一個偏共和黨的結果;但如果你對大學生進行抽樣,最後很可能獲得一個偏民主黨的結果。另外的數據又顯示,受過高等教育的選民,比較願意接受民調訪問,每個都是選我選我~而那些較保守、教育程度較低的選民,他們的聲音就很難反映在民調上,所以如果你沒有按照「教育程度」來做加權,民調就會充斥太多年輕大學生的意見,導致結果偏向民主黨。先前民調機構都不怎麼重視教育程度對選情的影響,結果導致2016「爆冷門」。
有鑑於4年前的「教訓」,今年有越來越多民調機構,把選民教育程度的權重提高了,簡單來說就是把教育程度較高的受訪者音量降低一點,把教育程度較低的受訪者音量調高一點,讓他們各自符合在總人口中所佔的比例。今年從3月以來,美國各家民調機構做的幾十個調查中,已經有半數增加教育程度的權重,是先前的兩倍多(約20%)。
可能比2016年更糟糕的是,網路民調的增加。我們剛剛已經提過網路民調的準確度有待商榷,但過去幾個月來,越來越多機構採用網路民調的方式,比例佔地方民調總數的一半。他們採用的方法可能太過簡單,就是直接抓一群網路群組成員,然後再根據受訪者的人口統計資料進行分類加權,這樣的作法成本很低又很方便,但非常容易有樣本代表性不足的結果,而且最後民調可能左傾。 (最好的方式是結合電話民調和網路民調,例如AP/NORC/VoteCast的民調,電訪4萬人外加隨機抽樣11萬網友,結果可能較為客觀。
另一個可能不太客觀的做法是:請選民「回想投票」。
目前有越來越多投票機構採取這個方式,也就是要求受訪者回想2016年他把票投給誰,是希拉蕊還是川普呢?然後再依據他們的回答去做選舉意向的加權。這樣做可以讓民調數字看起來比較漂亮,也可以減少錯誤,但卻很難避免系統偏差,導致結果傾向某一政黨。再加上通常大家都會傾向回答,自己是投給獲勝的那一方,沒有人會想承認自己投給輸家嘛!再說這四年來誕生不少首投族,又有不少人往生,像是疫情導致那麼多人死亡,也有很多人搬到別的地方去,硬把2016年的投票意向套用到今年,恐怕不太合適。
所以這個民調到底是能不能看啊?你要是問我,我覺得就別看了 ,這是我們媒體想要預測選舉的結果, 或研究單位拿來做選民行為分析. 但一般選民還是把政策看清楚點比較要緊,你管別人怎麼投
今天琪斐大放送的關鍵字是:
#美民調失準
#選情霧茫茫
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The Real Threat to the US is the loss of self-confidence
──An Open Letter to Mr. Secretary Mike Pompeo
My name is Wang Ping-Chung, the spokesperson for the New Party, Taiwan’s political party. During the ongoing pandemic of the Covid-19, the enemy of all human beings, including the American people and Chinese people, is definitely the corona virus. However, as Secretary of State of the United States, you seem to consider China instead of the virus to be your enemy. It lets you do little in pandemic prevention but much in blaming the WHO and China. You have even made great efforts to politicalize the issue of public health in order to attack China, which reflects the United States’ prevailing concept of so-called China’s threat. Nevertheless, the real threat to the US is not China but the loss of self-confidence indeed.
As President Franklin Roosevelt once said, “Only thing we have to fear is the fear itself.” The threat you have to fear today is not other peoples but yourselves. Even though you have done your best to shift blames on the WHO and China, the fact is already clear of the US domestic misdiagnosed cases, which had been seen as H1N1 but in fact corona virus since last autumn. It is also your fault in underestimating the severity of the epidemic while China sacrificed itself to let the world have more preparation time. Accordingly, the Covid-19 has killed more than fifty thousand people in America. As China’s population is four times larger than the US, it is quite shocking that America’s death toll due to the Covid-19 has been above China’s.
I feel so sorry for the suffering of your people, yet it is never too late to mend. However, not only did you palm off the responsibility on others, but you also undermined international solidarity against the pandemic. Moreover, you even try to deny the status of the WHO as the coordinator for universal combat against diseases, which in some way means challenging the global institutions under the governance of the United Nations. It is so unbelievable that the United States, viewing itself as the world leader above half a century, is tending to destroy the world order recognized by the international society. The very reason I can think of is the loss of America’s self-confidence. It is the threat to both the US and the whole world.
For Liberalists in the United States, China has been believed either an opponent or a violator to international institutions. As far as it’s concerned, there had been debates whether to keep containing China economically and militarily or engaging it institutionally. Both were resulted from America’s confidence in its leadership. Consequently, the confidence gradually changed into arrogance, luring the United States into aggressions upon other countries as the global superpower without permission from the UN Security Council. It made America exhausted at last. Therefore, the United States has become an isolationist, and even a betrayer to the global institutions they established before. On the contrary, China seems more like a protector of the world order.
On the other hand, for Realists, the predominant thinkers in international politics, China has been seen as the primary rival to America. As they estimate there will be threat if any other regional hegemony occurs, the nation’s fear becomes beyond what its capability can hold. To some extent, this is the real crisis to your people. In fact, different from western nations developing themselves by oppressing and exploiting others, the Chinese people have risen out of poverty at the cost of blood, sweat, and tears of our own. I would like to remind you of Franklin Roosevelt’s self-evident words that nothing to fear but fear itself. The only threat you should conquer is the threat in your mind.
As Henry Kissinger has argued, relations between China and the United States need not – and should not – become a zero-sum game. He also suggested that China and America build a Pacific community with each other. Thinking in the same way, Chinese President Xi also claimed that the vast Pacific Ocean has enough space for the two large countries of China and the United States. Furthermore, I believe the world is large enough to embrace different political and social systems. As western liberalism in recent years has met difficulties in over-consumption and government failure, we should be more open-minded to the superiority of Chinese governance in some fields, especially the high efficiency in defeating the epidemic. The United States should also be more self-confident to have China rising under the global governance of international institutions, sharing with mutual benefits instead of destroying each other. Without doubt, only by doing so can the United States overcome the real threat and bring the world peace and prosperity, the real universal values for all mankind.
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