貨櫃三雄周三(15日)早盤湧現賣壓,再度回測前波低點,所幸尾盤急拉收紅。儘管近兩個月航運股利多不漲、股價陷入低檔盤整,但國內投顧卻持續看好,在最新報告中提到,受惠於美國廠商回補庫存需求可望至明年底,以及塞港成為常態化,這兩個理由凸顯貨櫃運輸需求持續強勁,明年獲利表現將高於今年;並認為市場錯估2022年獲利及過度高估2023年船隻供給,預期未來認錯回補會讓股價仍有高點可期,股價下跌是很好的投資機會。
同時也有1部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過4萬的網紅追劇時間Emmy,也在其Youtube影片中提到,商品庫存持續降低,全球運力卻不見起色! 上一集我們分析過,造船廠十年大劫倒掉七成,新增船隻緩慢;然而既有船隻也面臨多項環保大限,明年中的EEDI第三期、2023年一月的EEXI、2024年的壓艙水系統大限,竟然現在連進船塢修船都還要塞廠。 眼看Delta病毒又肆虐,中國越南情況惡化,全球確診病例上升...
塞港2023 在 先探投資週刊 Facebook 的最讚貼文
萬海(2615)稱若疫情不緩解,塞港到明年也無解,明年運費將很難下來
【財訊快報/記者劉居全報導】萬海(2615)今(14)日舉行線上法說會,萬海總經理謝福隆表示,目前碼頭塞港的狀況仍無解,若疫情得到舒緩,碼頭塞港狀況才可望在明年上半年解決,如果疫情不緩解,塞港預估到2022年上半年、全年甚至都無法解決,明年運費也很難下來。
謝福隆表示,目前越南、泰國、馬來西亞等國疫情嚴重,造成東南亞供應鏈緊縮,不過美國零售業庫存低水位,加上碼頭塞港嚴重,航商週轉率、整點率都很難維持正常,預估第三季的旺季效應會延伸到第四季,萬海第四季毛利率可望維持第三季高檔。
萬海上半年總計約146艘船舶,運力413,296 TEU(20呎櫃),在全球航商運力排名第10,今年以來以亞洲航線為主力,但也增闢中遠洋航線。萬海目前亞洲航線約43條,在亞洲市場佔有率約15%,亞洲區貨量比重約為65%,為強化亞洲到美西市場服務,自2021年3月中旬起,擴大為每周4班的定期航班。為拓展美東市場佈局,自2021年6月18日起,開闢亞洲到美東航線,由於積極拓展美洲線下,今年上半年亞洲航線營收占比從去年上半年的67.6%,降到39.8%,而美國線則從去年5.2%,大幅提高到27.8%,而南美也從去年的6.6%,提高到12.4%,中東則維持在20%上下,目前美洲線營收占比已達40%。至於目前自有船舶、自有貨櫃站占比分別為56%、78%,適時掌握市場變化。
至於在新造船方面,今年截至今日已交8艘新造船,到今年底還有3艘將要交船,預計2022年將交船12艘、2023年將交船20艘,2024年則有9艘船待交。在購買二手船方面,截至今年上半年,已交了8艘二手船,運力增加46,143TEU。在造櫃方面,去年第四季到今年第三季,總計造櫃18.4萬TEU 新櫃,而日前董事會通過第四季再造新櫃支應需求。萬海表示,由於新船交付比較多,在成本方面折舊也增加。而今年資本支出約12.92億美元,其中以造船支出居多,其次為造櫃,至於明年資本支出為8.35億美元。
萬海在營運策略方面,將朝三方向努力;一是低成本經營,也就是低固定成本,利用貨量優勢,在各主要轉運碼頭取得具競爭力的裝卸費率;二是完整的服務網路,著眼於近洋地區貨載高成長、跨區域特性、藉由中國出口與區間航段網絡來加速遠洋貨載發展;三是要效益管理、客戶多元化、直接提供銷售服務的全球據點、著重於攬收港對港貨載,帶動健全的貨量成。
塞港2023 在 Facebook 的最佳貼文
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預計出貨日:付款完成3天內會依訂單順序,依序出貨(不含例假日),最晚出貨日為9/30。
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同場加映生活好物:
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本團恕不適用美賣優惠券,敬請見諒
⚠️此團為預購團,本團預計出貨日為10月底左右出貨,請耐心等候;因國際航運塞港之緣故,若遇疫情嚴峻可能會有延後到貨時間情況,敬請見諒謝謝⚠️
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本島免運本方案無法配送外島,限台灣本島配送
本團恕不適用美賣優惠券,敬請見諒
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塞港2023 在 追劇時間Emmy Youtube 的最佳貼文
商品庫存持續降低,全球運力卻不見起色!
上一集我們分析過,造船廠十年大劫倒掉七成,新增船隻緩慢;然而既有船隻也面臨多項環保大限,明年中的EEDI第三期、2023年一月的EEXI、2024年的壓艙水系統大限,竟然現在連進船塢修船都還要塞廠。
眼看Delta病毒又肆虐,中國越南情況惡化,全球確診病例上升,塞港!缺船!缺櫃!環保設備!啊啊啊啊水手們忙翻天,航運業火熱朝天!
✔ 台灣蚵仔居然搬家到葡萄牙?
✔ 什麼是壓艙水?限硫令又是什麼?
很多人看衰明年航運業營收,覺得大家都訂新船,又會回到2008年船太多貨太少的大空頭,但其實這次航運業可能要來一次結構性改變,不再是以往的景氣循環產業了。
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長榮、陽明、萬海股價破百還會再漲嗎?塞塞塞港,持續噴出的大排長榮六!
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長榮、陽明、萬海超漲了嗎?全球航運財報深度解析的大排長榮七
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長榮、陽明、萬海前進主升段!原物料+高通膨不會結束,穩定支持高運價!大排長榮系列八
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航運股價還會再噴?萬海長榮陽明營運解析|大排長榮系列九
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長榮陽明萬海航運股誰將勝出?市值爭霸戰陽明篇|大排長榮十
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浴火重生後陽明能夠超越長榮和萬海?航運股爭霸之大排長榮十一
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長榮陽明萬海被拜登殺航運股運價?滯港費問題深度研究之大排長榮十二
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破解航酸:董娘解質是要賣股?長榮陽明萬海航運股完了?大排長榮十三
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航運股大海嘯,長榮陽明萬海要賣掉還是加碼?大排長榮十四
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🔔 Youtube【追劇時間Emmy】:https://reurl.cc/WE23E7
👍 Facebook【Emmy 追劇時間粉絲團】:https://reurl.cc/4y0aaV
❤️ IG【Emmy追劇時間】:https://reurl.cc/Q7v960
#航運業 #環保 #綠能 #產業分析 #壓艙水 #限硫令 #蚵仔 #長榮 #陽明 #萬海 #航運股 #股票 #IMO #葡萄牙 #台灣

塞港2023 在 2023 航運股解析|長榮、陽明、萬海未來展望|重大新聞 的推薦與評價

其實這只是「 塞港 效應」造成營收及獲利的認列不斷遞延,造成景氣不斷延長的假象,其實都是「假性需求」堆積而成的海市蜃樓。 阿奇觀點阿奇於去年的 ... ... <看更多>
塞港2023 在 23年式船期(第2頁) - Mobile01 的推薦與評價
如果有人已經開始領取2023年式的車子,拜託通知大家一下(Porsche 第2頁) ... 7月的生產配額在五月確認選配的2023年式Taycan RWD. ... 上網有看到塞港的新聞。 ... <看更多>
塞港2023 在 [情報] 2023年及其之後:海運市場的展望- 看板Stock 的推薦與評價
1. 標題:2023年及其之後:運力、運費,以及海運市場的展望
2. 來源:MoreThanShipping
3. 網址:https://reurl.cc/zMjoQk
4. 內文:
今天在網上閒逛,
看到海事諮詢公司SeaIntelligence執行長Lars Jensen
2月份一篇預測2023年後海運市場的文章,
覺得很有意思,隨手譯出分享給股板鄉民。
================================================
2023 and Beyond:
What to Expect for Shipping, Rates, and Deliverability
2023年及其之後:運力、運費,以及海運市場的展望
The current disruption in the supply chain obviously has everyone’s
attention. However, the current situation is not permanent, and the
pandemic-induced bottlenecks in the system will eventually work themselves
out. Hence, it is prudent to contemplate the nature of the market in 2023 and
beyond already now, especially since some shippers are already negotiating
freight contracts stretching for both two and three years.
近來,明眼人都注意到全球供應鏈面臨的困境。然而,因疫情導致的供應鏈瓶頸並不會永
久存續而終將被解決。因此,那些眼光長遠的人此時將開始思索:2023年以及之後的海
運市場,將會是什麼光景?有些發貨業者甚至已開始簽訂兩至三年的海運長約。
Basically, there are elements in the market right now which are temporary,
and there are elements which will lead to permanent changes. Let us start by
contemplating the more temporary elements.
市場上的變數大致可分為暫時性的,
和那些導致深遠後果的因子。
我們不妨先探討那些暫時性的因素。
First of all, there is the issue of the bottleneck problems globally.
Bottlenecks have been caused by a variety of factors such as major surges in
demand, ports closures, blockage of the Suez Canal, shortages of truck and
chassis, shortage of labor due to Covid-19, etc. Whilst these problems loom
large presently they will eventually be resolved. Global demand in 2021 was
only 5-6% higher than in 2019. This means that the amount of ships and
containers in the world is not a major problem. The major problem is the port
and hinterland congestion tying up these assets for far too long. As the
inland logistics problems gradually get resolved, the operations will come
back to normal.
第一、造成全球供應鏈瓶頸的因素大致可歸納如下:
貨運需求驟升、港口壅塞、蘇伊士運河阻塞、卡車及車架短缺、港口工人染疫…等等。
但這些短期負面因子終將消弭。
在2021年,全球貨運需求僅比2019年高出5至6%,
這表示貨櫃船的數量並非不足。
瓶頸主要來源還是來自塞港以及腹地貨運不暢。
當物流問題解決,運輸營運自然可回歸正常。
Looking at the largest congestion for which there is solid data, namely the
labor disputes causing massive queues off the U.S. West Coast in 2015, it is
found that it will take at least 8-9 months before the supply chain can be
fully back to normality. And, given the high likelihood of additional
curveballs in 2022, it is more realistic to assume full normality is not
restored until we are into 2023.
回顧西岸港口在2015年的勞資糾紛,
大量數據表明,要讓供應鏈復原,起碼需時8至9個月。
若再加上2022年可能發生的「天有不測風雲」事件,
合理預估海運市場能回歸正常的時間,
大概落在2023年。
But this also means that shippers need to plan from the perspective that 2022
is all about contingency planning just as we saw in 2021 – but from 2023 it
should increasingly be about gradually bringing their supply chains back into
a normal shape.
這也意謂著,託運人可以把2022年的海運市場當做2021年看待。
而2023年開始,供應鏈就會逐漸回歸「正常」。
But this brings us to the second part, because what does “normal” mean in
this context?
但問題來了,所謂的「正常」是什麼意思?
From an operational perspective shippers should expect schedule reliability
to revert back to pre-pandemic levels when it comes to vessels arriving on
time. However, there are two other operational elements which must be
carefully noted.
對託運人來說,這代表貨櫃準班率能回到疫情前的水準。
但還有兩個因素必須留意。
One element is the prospect of sailing vessels slower.
第一、船舶行駛速度調降
Bunker fuel prices for low-sulphur fuel is setting new records these days and
match the peaks seen for old heavy fuel in 2012. Back then, carriers slowed
vessels down to alleviate the high fuel costs and this might well happen in
2023 as the bottlenecks are removed. Furthermore, 2023 sees the introduction
of new environmental legislation under IMO2023 rules. This forces shipping
lines to improve fuel efficiency of the individual vessels and can likely
also lead to more slow-steaming. Shippers might therefore experience that
reliability becomes normal, but transit times might be slightly longer than
the pre-pandemic normality.
近來,低硫燃料油的價格不斷創高。
如同2012年重燃料油價格的飆漲,
當時船舶為了應對高額燃料費,不得不降速行駛。
而相同情形也會在2023年重演,
即使那時供應鏈瓶頸已疏緩。
而國際海事組織在2023年的環保規範
亦將迫使船舶降低航速以提升燃油使用效率。
託運人將會發現,
準班率可能回歸正常,但貨運航程將較疫情前費時更久。
The other element relates to blank sailings.
第二:空白航班
Right now, all blank sailings in the market are basically because the
carriers do not have the necessary vessels to deliver on their planned
schedules. In itself, this is caused by the bottlenecks. When the bottlenecks
are removed, blank sailings once more become a yield management tool for the
carriers. They were already beginning to do this to larger extent in 2018-19
and we saw how they used it with great effect in the spring of 2020 where
they managed to keep rates stable in the early phase of the pandemic where
demand suddenly dropped sharply. Shippers should therefore expect blank
sailings to be a normal part of the market in 2023.
現在全球的空白航班基本上都歸因於港口壅塞。
當供應鏈瓶頸疏緩,空白航班將成為航商調整效率的工具。
可以注意到,航商在疫情前期的2018-2019年,需求大幅減少的時期,
已經使用空白航班維持運價穩定。
託運人會發現,2023年後空白航班將會是海運市場的新常態。
And this leads us, finally, to the freight rates.
最後,我們探討運價將如何變化。
The current spot rates are dominated by the physical shortage of capacity due
to the bottlenecks. As this becomes better spot rates will start dropping,
but even in a “free fall” scenario a reversal to more normal levels will
likely take more than a year. And, what is the post-pandemic normality for
rates?
現在供應鏈的瓶頸,造就高昂的運價。
但就算運價開始下滑,回歸到「正常」水平,
需時也將超過一年。況且,在後疫情時期,
「正常的運價」應該是什麼水準?
Carriers have clearly learned over the past two years that many shippers,
especially on the consumer-heavy head haul trades, are fully capable of
paying thousands of dollars more than before 2020. Major cargo owners such as
Walmart, Home Depot, Target, etc. are all showing very good business results
for 2021 despite the supply chain problems. This shows quite clearly that a
substantial part of the market is capable of paying rates in line with late
2020/early 2021 and still have a fully viable business model. These larger
customers account for a larger proportion of the carriers’ capacity and
hence the carriers have little incentive to drop the rates below those levels.
過去2年,航商們都發現,像是沃爾瑪(Walmart)、家得寶(Home Depot)、
目標百貨(Target)等等大型客戶,完全有能力支付高昂的運費
同時有著亮眼的營收。
這表示,貨櫃託運的買方完全有能力
在維持營運模式不變的前提下,負擔現今的高運費。
加上,這些公司都是航運業者的主力客戶,
因此,航商完全沒有動機對運費做出調降。
At this point it must then be noted that the pandemic period, and especially
the past 12 months, has seen a rapid growth in the amount of new services
offered either by smaller existing carriers starting services in major
deep-sea trades or by entirely new carriers launched to offer services in
this highly challenging market. On top of that, we see some sailings being
offered by freight forwarders chartering own vessels or even cargo owners
chartering vessels.
值得注意的是,過去一年,許多現存的或新加入海運市場的
小型航商開始提供貨櫃託運服務。
尤有甚者,貨運承攬業和貨櫃商也來分食這塊大餅。
It could therefore be thought that this injection of new carriers – and
their capacity – would increase competition going forward and as a
consequence eventually force rates downwards. However, it is much more likely
that these are all temporary developments and they will disappear when the
market normalizes.
運力的注入導致更多競爭,而無可避免的將導致運價下跌。
但在市場回歸「正常」後,這些新玩家很可能也將隨之消失。
It is not difficult to start a profitable service in a market where freight
rates are in the $10-20,000 USD/FFE range. But when rates start to come down,
these newcomers will become squeezed on cost. Their vessels are often much
smaller and hence have higher unit costs and many have been chartered in 2021
where the charter rates have been in the range of 5-10 times more expensive
than before the pandemic. There have even been deals where vessels which went
for 10-15,000 USD/day before the pandemic has now been chartered at
100,000-250,000 USD/day.
在運費報價2萬美金的時候,要賺錢當然很容易。
但是當運價開始下滑,特別是當集貨船日租金達到
一天10萬至25萬美金的時候,將大大侵蝕這些新航商的獲利空間,
他們的船隻相對較小,單位營運成本當然也較高。
Therefore, when the market starts to come back to normal it is very likely
that rates will drop to a point where many of these newcomers are no longer
profitable and will have to leave the market again. Remember that we also saw
a range of newcomers surge into the market in 2010 as we had a very tight
market in the rebound after the financial crisis, but these services all went
away again when the bull run was over.
因此,當市場漸漸回歸正軌,
運費終將達到這些新手無法負荷營運的水位,
而必須退出市場。
就像在2010年,當海運牛市結束後,新手航商只能黯然離開。
Hence, all in all, shippers should start preparing for the outlook that 2023
and beyond may well see operational performance restored, albeit with longer
transit times and more blank sailings, but they also need to plan in such a
way that their business models are robust in an environment where rates are
permanently at levels seen in late 2020 or early 2021 – and those levels
were substantially higher than in 2019.
這就表示,貨櫃市場的買方將發現,
在2023年及其之後,貨運船期將拉長,空白航班也會增多。
而這些需要貨櫃運輸的公司
最好開始調整公司的體質以適應高昂的運費。
因為往後的運價,
將很可能被永久定錨在2020-2021年之間的水平了。
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