Is a U.S.-China hot war imminent?|Lee Yee
In July, Pompeo claimed the American policy towards China is harsher than the one towards the Soviet Union in the Cold War era. The approach has been shifted from “listening to its words and watching its deeds” to “ignoring its words and only watching its deeds”. Recent developments show that the U.S. is striding closer and closer to a complete de-linkage with China. The recall of the ambassador from China was just a prelude. What followed was the U.S. official interpretation that “one China policy” is not equivalent to “one China principle”, plus the emphasis that “the U.S. holds no specific standpoint towards the sovereignty of Taiwan”. Furthermore, during the visit of Krach, U.S. Under Secretary of State, Tsai Ing-wen stated that “Taiwan has the determination to take the critical step”. Adding fuel to this, Hsiao Bi Khim, Taiwan’s delegate at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the U.S., introduced herself as the “Taiwan Ambassador to the U.S.” on Twitter. In view of all these, is the U.S. going to establish diplomatic relation with Taiwan? Will it turn out to be the “October surprise” before the U.S. presidential election? In response, China dispatched fighter jets to violate the airspace of Taiwan, and as “Global Times” put it, “this was not a gesture of warning, but an actual combat exercise of attacking Taiwan”. In return, Taiwan authority urged China “not to underestimate its armed forces' resolve in safeguarding Taiwan”. As tension keeps building up across the Strait, will the U.S. intervene and finally trigger a U.S.-China hot war?
For the last few months, while analyzing the situation, quite a few observers have drawn upon the “Thucydides trap” originated from an ancient Greek historian. According to this theory, when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as an international hegemony, there will be an unavoidable tendency towards war.
To be frank, these observers may have well overestimated the strength of China. Thanks to its huge population, China has become the second largest economic entity in the world. But we are now living in an era that national strength is rather defined by technological advancement. In reality, China is militarily inferior to Russia and technologically lagging far behind major western countries. To put it simply, China is yet to be capable of challenging the American dominance.
Back in the 1980s, in the heyday of its economic development, Japan has significantly outperformed the U.S. in the capital market, and some American scholars have come to the “Japan No.1” conclusion. Despite this, there was never a sign of military confrontation between U.S. and Japan. A decade later, the formation of the European Union posed new challenge to the American supremacy. But again, the two did not come anywhere close to a war. So why has the emergence of China, which in fact lacks the capabilities to overwhelm the U.S., aroused much anticipation of war?
Rudolph Rummel, an American professor of political studies, have made a thorough analysis on the correlation between wars and democracy in human history. After humans surviving a thousand years of darkness, it was not until the independence of the U.S. in 1776 that unveiled a democratic institution with public elections, separation of powers, multi-party system as well as freedom of speech, press, religion and assembly. After more than a hundred years, in 1900 there were only 13 democratic countries in the world. And after another decade, in 2015 the rose to 130, and dictatorial states without meaningful elections have become the minority.
According to Rummel’s statistics, there were 371 wars between 1816 and 2005. Among them, 205 were fought between two dictatorial countries and 166 between democratic and dictatorial ones. Interestingly, there had not been a single war between democratic countries. The conclusion is all too obvious: if there were only democratic states on earth, wars would not happen.
And here lies the fundamental reason why the “Thucydides Trap” has been more valid in the old days when dictatorial systems prevailed, but has failed to apply in contemporary cases between two democratic countries. And it also explains why the competitions between the U.S. and Japan or the EU have not led to any war, while the challenge from China will probably end up differently.
In a democratic system, to wage a war requires a consensus among the government, legislature, media and public opinion. It is rather a matter of the people’s collective will than the ruler’s subjective decision. Whereas within a dictatorial structure, no approval from the legislature is needed, media and public opinion are never respected and judicial challenge simply does not exist. A dictator or oligarch can just go to war at will.
From a dictator’s point of view, whether to enter a war or not is not subject to external circumstance, but the domestic status of his ruling. When a dictator’s position gets shaken by severe economic downturn and widespread public discontent, he will try to divert domestic dissatisfaction by means of foreign maneuvers. The dictator tends to single out those “non-conforming groups”, as so identified by the “little pink” Chinese patriots, and tries bullying them, as what the CCP is doing in India, Hong Kong and Inner Mongolia. The objective is to distract attention with extreme nationalism. More often than not, stirring up external instability has become a tactic to secure domestic stability of the dictator’s rule.
Perhaps a shrewd dictator will weigh up the strength of his counterpart before taking action. Nevertheless, the intrinsically defective system may hinder the dictator from understanding the reality and accessing different views. And personal intellectual and intelligent inadequacies may also breed unrealistic self-inflating belief. The resulted stupidity can make a tragedy more imminent than everyone may expect.
「u.s.-china tension」的推薦目錄:
u.s.-china tension 在 浩爾譯世界 Facebook 的最佳貼文
【每日國際選讀】
#文末挑戰多益選擇題📝
南韓總統警告北韓,卻絕口不提金正恩姓名?
開啟「接收通知」和「搶先看」每天吸收雙語時事新知
來讀華爾街日報獨家
🇰🇷South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Thursday warned North Korea against conducting any armed attack on Seoul following several weeks of rising tensions that have dragged inter-Korean relations to their lowest point in years.
南韓總統文在寅於週四(6/25)警告北韓不可對首爾進行任何武裝攻擊,在此之前的數週,緊張局勢不斷升高,已將南北韓關係拉至多年來的最低點。
-armed: 武裝的;例如armed conflict武裝衝突
✍️armed with...裝備了某種武器,例如They were armed with guns.
-tension: 緊張、張力;(兩組人馬之間的)緊張關係或緊張局勢
-drag: 拖動、硬拉
⛰Mr. Moon’s stern remarks were unusually strong for a president who has dedicated the last three years to improving relations with Pyongyang. During that period, he engaged North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in three summits and in 2018 facilitated the first summit between a sitting U.S. president and a North Korean leader.
對於這位過去三年來致力改善平壤關係的總統來說,此嚴厲言論異常強烈。在此期間,他與北韓領導人金正恩舉行過三場高峰會議,並於2018年促成了美國在任總統與北韓首領的首次高峰會。
-relation: 關係;政商上常見的名詞有:
國際關係international relations、企業關係business relations
顧客關係customer relations、公眾關係public relations等等
-engage: 互動、往來;此處指參與對話或討論
-sitting: 現任的;目前正位居職位上的,如現任參議員a sitting senator
💬“We want peace. But we will respond resolutely to anyone who threatens our people’s safety or lives,” he said, without naming North Korea’s Mr. Kim.
文總統表示:「我們希望和平,但我們將會堅決回應任何威脅我國人民性命安全的對象。」卻沒有點名北韓的金正恩。
-resolutely: 堅決地
✍️resolution: 決心、決意;也可指團體或組織的正式「決議、正式決定」
🎤Mr. Moon spoke at a live televised event commemorating the 70th anniversary of the start of the 1950-53 Korean War. Over one million South Koreans died during the conflict. Around 37,000 Americans died while serving in Korea at the time.
此段演說發表於電視直播活動上,該活動為1950-53年韓戰起始的70周年紀念。超過一百萬南韓人死於該戰役,當時約有3萬7千名美國人在南韓服役時喪生。
-televise: 透過電視轉播
-commemorate: 紀念
-serve: 服務;在此處指「服役」,serving your country即是「為國貢獻」
未完待續...
針對金正恩的威脅,南韓總統還說了什麼話?
加入文末每日國際選讀計畫,解鎖完整語音導讀版
——
原文連結請看留言
——
❓❓多益模擬題❓:
U.S.-China __ have been in an uneasy state for more than a decade, with longstanding __ over trade, allegations of Chinese technology theft and China’s more assertive military and foreign policy.
🙋♀️🙋♂️
A. relationship / tension
B. relation / tension
C. relations / tensions
-
【每日商業英文計畫,熱烈招生中!】
華爾街日報訂閱超值方案 📰
專屬 #臉書社團,浩爾 #每日語音導讀
「留言+1」,就送你 #優惠碼 及 #導讀試聽!
u.s.-china tension 在 Taiwan, Trade, Tech and More: A Tense Era in U.S.-China Ties 的相關結果
And no relationship seethes, across such a wide and consequential set of issues, with more tension and mistrust. The United States and China ... ... <看更多>
u.s.-china tension 在 US-China tensions - Nikkei Asia 的相關結果
US -China tensions · Harvard professor convicted by U.S. jury of lying about China ties. Nobel hopeful nanoscientist Lieber failed to report income from ... ... <看更多>
u.s.-china tension 在 Timeline: U.S. Relations With China 1949–2021 的相關結果
The United States and its allies contend China's quota violates international trade norms, forcing multinational firms that use the metals to relocate to China. ... <看更多>