INTEREST RATE CLARITY AND DOVISH JACKSON HOLE TESTIMONY SHOULD LIFT EQUITY MOOD, KLCI TO REGAIN UPWARD MOMENTUM
[Top Featured Stocks which include the likes of Gamuda, Bursa, IHH, IGB, Sunway, Westports, Fitters, PJDev, Econpile, Pintaras, Sentoria, Huayang, KSL and Matrix.]
Going forward, we expect local market to remain firm, trend higher and gradually retest 8th July 2014 all-time-high of 1896.23 level as traders increased their bets on solid USA economy, dovish Federal Reserve testimony, reduced geopolitical tension and a steady recovery of the world economy. Local stocks should get momentum from world stocks performance (MSCI All World stocks and S&P 500) which recently hit five-year and all-time-high respectively with an impressive gain of 17.6% and 20.7% year-to-date, driven by a round of positive economic data and low interest rate despite the latest commodity volatility and elevated tensions in the Ukraine and Russia. We expect many Asian bourses including Bursa to play catch-up, with MSCI All-World and FTSE All-World equity index rose to its best close since May 2008 following Federal Reserve easy policy continuity and ease of geopolitical tension. There is also another bullish wild card from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi who is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole. Global equity should get a huge relief rally if ECB hints at the possibility of a USA-like quantitative easing policy, which has been debated in Europe but so far the ECB has declined to pursue. Despite a hawkish tone from last week USA Fed meeting minutes and the collapse of local speculative small cap stocks (Sumatec and PDZ), the local indices should get further rally driven by a measure of strength in German PMI readings that bolstered hope for a modest lift in third-quarter European growth prospects. Investors should take heart from a batch of encouraging global economic data (USA Building Permits, USA Housing Starts, Germany Manufacturing PMI, France Manufacturing PMI, Canada Wholesale Sales), which helped offset hawking Federal Reserve minutes. Investors should have better interest rate clarity on the normalisation of monetary policy after the much awaited Jackson Hole Bankers Central Bankers Conference following the strength of the USA economy and jobs market. On a weekly basis, ringgit saw aggressive moves higher versus the dollar, gaining 5.3% to 3.17 since February 2014, starting its strong upward momentum after being battered down since May 2013. We expect these fresh rounds of foreign dollar injection to slowly push carry trades into higher yield Malaysian market, boosting local asset liquidity specifically Bursa stock market and Malaysian government bonds. On the technical front, we see strength across the board with FBMKLCI remain 2% below record territory supported by Wall Street at new all-time highs and Dow Jones Industrial Average back above the 17,000 psychology level. Studies are showing positive momentum for FBMKLCI but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 20-day moving average. The market has a positive tilt with the close over the 1860 support level. The 9-day Stochastics over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 1880 and 1900 levels, while major areas of support hit at 1860 and 1850 levels respectively. We expect the recent upward momentum in equity to continue given the steady follow-through Bursa performance during the last week session. Meanwhile, we expect the following headlines to power up selective play near term sentiment (1) Petronas to give 10.0% stake in Bintulu LNG 9 to Sabah government (2) Brahim willing to sell its stake on Malaysia Airlines request (3) Bumi Armada’s consortium to seal USDD3b oil gas contract deal in Angola (4) Kumpulan Europlus to buy stake in Talam (5) Icon Offshore to bag RM297.0m worth of jobs from Brunei Shell Petroleum (6) Malaysia Airlines to appoint a new top management and (7) Oldtown to open 27 cafes in in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Australia by end 2015. Overall, the early Bursa edge goes to the bulls, with next target at the 1880 level benefitting from a risk-on vibe across USA and Europe. We reiterate that the FBMKLCI remains above its monthly uptrendline and thus is in a secular bull market. That means any significant periods of weakness this year should be viewed as strong buying opportunities. While local small caps consolidate with buoying sentiment, impressive rotational interest on large and mid-cap blue chips should showcase healthy risk taking with active foreign participation accumulating battered down blue chip stocks. Strategy wise, given that the short term trend has turned positive toward 1880, traders should accumulate our last recommended Top Featured Stocks which include the likes of Gamuda, Bursa, IHH, IGB, Sunway, Westports, Fitters, PJDev, Econpile, Pintaras, Sentoria, Huayang, KSL and Matrix.
Dr Nazri Khan
First Vice President/Head of Retail Strategy, Affin Investment Bank
@ President, Malaysian Association of Technical Analyst (MATA)
