🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment (此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間9點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)
🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook
🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.
"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."
全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.
We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.
And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.
There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.
When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.
You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.
I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.
So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .
I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.
Here's some that I have been telling people I like:
First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.
Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.
The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.
I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.
So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.
Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.
Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.
There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.
So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051
Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.
同時也有1部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過3萬的網紅EAT AT HOME 食・家,也在其Youtube影片中提到,#蘋果點心 #聖誕party食物 #蘋果批 #聖誕點心 蘋果派是我請朋友來我家時常做的菜式,所以特意選了這個來做和大家Q&A的影片。剛巧蘋果派的餡料由蘋果加入不同的香料如肉桂、丁香、八角和糖煮成,濃濃的香料味就像提示我們聖誕節快到了。 . 這個短片第一次用一邊做菜,一邊回答問題的形式表達,我在準備...
plastic love 意思 在 怪咖電影院 Facebook 的精選貼文
整理
生活方面我是一個很有條理的人,做事爽快,也很會斷捨離,但感情上恰恰相反。
在寫這個專頁的過程中,又往後望了一遍,把過去完完整整的回憶一遍,開始的時候我以為我會寫很多關於他的往事,說真的要寫真的還有好些東西可以寫,還有許多我們一起看的電影可以分享。
忽然在某一天,我想把我們的故事好好收結,不是因為回憶太沈重,反而是因為我好像終於準備好往前,一心一意的往前了。剛開始用Medium這個平台,發現它真的比臉書專頁好用很多,把過去關於他的文章在Medium上整理一遍,在喜歡的位置插入圖片、影片,在文章的首尾分別加上前一篇和後一篇,也順道整理一下自己最後的情緒,很好。
[Medium版本在這裡:https://bit.ly/2sWbp9k]
「你猜他有沒有在看啊?」這是許多朋友問我的問題,而「那他的反應是怎麼樣的呢?」則是第二。
在這個故事寫完之後,因為一個音樂節,我們傳了幾條短訊,文字是冷淡的,但早已很了解對方的我們,大概都知道我們那是刻意的冷淡。他沒有提起過這個專頁半句,所以對於朋友的問題我還是沒有半點線索,以前我以為答案很重要,現在倒覺得知不知道也沒什麼分別。
有好長好長的一段時間,我一直沈溺在負面情緒裡,聽悲哀的歌,看難過的書,心底裡大概覺得帶點憂鬱的人比較酷吧?當真正經歷過生活的磨練後,才發現能笑著面對一切的人才是真正的勇者。而且,我們其實也真的沒必要一直讓朋友擔心,讓親人難受。話雖如此,那段時光的意思亂想還是給了我特殊的養分,希望或多或少的,在我的文字中可以看得出來。
原來放下的感覺是這樣的啊。是如釋重負嗎?更貼切的應該是雲淡風輕。這應該是我最後一次往後看了,我看到的是朦朧的溫暖的光(有點像這幅油畫,我最愛的畫家Turner在晚年的作品,跟以前悲憤澎湃的畫作很不一樣,看到真跡的時候我呆望著那幅畫好久好久),人生有這樣的一段經歷也夠感恩。
希望他也安好、也快樂。
今天來一首輕快慵懶的歌,竹內瑪莉亞的Plastic Love。
https://youtu.be/3bNITQR4Uso
P.S. 當然電影還是要繼續寫,我遇到的怪人怪事也還有很多值得分享。
plastic love 意思 在 林柏妤 Facebook 的最讚貼文
美麗的台東被接連幾個颱風襲擊重創,但海岸線還是一絕,有空去走走吧!
#timefortaiwan
It's Time for Taiwan!!
One thing you must do when you come to Taitung is to come around the seaside because it has the most beautiful coast here!
當你來到台東一定要做的事,就是去海邊,因為這裡有全台灣最漂亮的海岸!
2016-2017 Episode 5 East Coast Line 東部海岸趴趴走(台東)
Transcript 影片文字稿:
Welcome to TAIWAN, I am Poyu Lin, I love to travel ,love wandering around in Taiwan
歡迎來到台灣,我是林柏妤,我熱愛旅行,也喜歡在台灣趴趴走
Today,I am taking Taiwan Tourist Shuttles of East Coast Line. Along the route, we will see the natural, this great talented artist left us some vibrant fine sculptures here.
今天我選擇的台灣好行,走的是東部海岸線,在這裡,我們可以看到大自然,就像是一個天才藝術家,留下許多鬼斧神工的作品。
Oh it's a beautiful place, the ocean lines are good, everything is beautiful here
這裡真美,很棒的海岸線,這裡什麼都很美。
Wanna see how far your imagination can go? You’ll have to come to “Xiaoyeliu Scenic Area”. What do you think this rock looks like?
如果你覺得你的想像力夠豐富的話,一定要來「小野柳風景區」,這塊岩石你覺得像什麼?
Doufu?Mushroom?Look, is it look like a frog?Honeycomb?Alien?Minions!
豆腐?蕈?你看,這是不是很像青蛙?蜂窩?外星人?或者是,小小兵...
Ok,well,let me think another one
好吧!那我再想想別的。
The interesting geological landscape of Xiaoyeliu was transformed through years of geological events, weathering and erosion. And the nature of its stratum, which is composed of overlapping layers of sandstone and mudstone, is the main ingredient to these unique sculptures.
如此有趣的地質景觀,是因為小野柳經過長年的地質變動,以及風化和海水侵蝕,加上它的地質性質,是由厚層砂岩和薄層泥岩交互沈積而成,創造了這些造型奇特的地質現象。
Aside from the beautiful scenery here, there are also many popular legends. The most famous one is about Sanxiantai.Back then, you will have to wait for the outgoing tide to walk over and visit. Nowaday with the bridge built in between, it becomes more accessible.
東部海岸除了漂亮的風景之外,這裡也有很多美麗的傳說,最有名的就是三仙台,以前得等到退潮才能過去,自從蓋了橋之後,一切都變的簡單多了。
From this angle you can take the coolest picture of Sanxiantai,having all 8 arch bridges in one shot. It looks like a giant dragon flying over the sea, doesn’t it?
這個角度,可以拍到三仙台最經典的照片,8座拱形的步橋連接起來,看起來是不是很像一條巨龍,飛翔在海上呢?
So,Sanxiantai used to be connected to the main island, and due to coastal erosion it became separated. If you literally translate Sanxiantai into English, It means the island of the three saints, represented by the three rocks.
以前三仙台跟本島是相連的,而會成為離岸島,是受到海水侵蝕的關係,為什麼這裡會被稱三仙台,傳說中有三個神仙,曾經在島上休息過。
Now,I’m going to cross the bridges
現在我要過去囉!
there is total of 320 stairs, so it's not difficult to climb
這裡總共有著320個階梯,對我來說小菜一碟
The size of Sanxiantai is as big as 27 football fields! I have got lots of energy so let’s walk around the area and look for the 3 immortals!
三仙台的面積,大約是27個足球場那麼大,依我的體力,要繞島一圈絕對沒有問題,三位神仙我來了。
I'm standing on Sanxiantai, the rock ,it’s so huge
我抵達了三仙台,這個石頭,好大~
However, for the native Amis Tribe, Sanxiantai is their traditional hunting and fishing ground and it is where food comes from. They called it “nuwalian”, which means “the place on the far east side”.
不過,對住在這的阿美族而言,三仙台是他們傳統的漁獵場和食物採集地,他們稱這裡叫”nuwalian”,意思就是「最東邊的地方」。
This is the Pisilian community, an enchanted Amis Tribe. The music instrument they were playing is called the “Paw-Paw” drum.
這裡是「比西里岸」,是非常迷人的阿美族部落,他們這裡最著名的樂器表演,叫做”寶抱鼓”!
The “Paw-Paw drum ”is created by local artists. They use recycled plastic floats of stationary fishing net and driftwood; then put on traditional Amis patterns, and turn it into a one and only Pisilian-style green instrument.
寶抱鼓是當地藝術家所創造的,利用廢棄的定置漁網浮筒和漂流木,加上阿美族圖騰裝飾,打造出專屬比西里岸部落的環保樂器。
This is easy to learn and great to play. You should to try it! today I’m going to say thank you for watching our show in Amis traditional language.
I am Poyu Lin, enjoy your time in Taiwan! “Aray”
這真是一個簡單易學又好聽的樂器,你也可以來試試看,今天,我要用阿美族的語言,跟大家說再見,我是林柏妤,享受在台灣的時光,“Aray”
More information>>>>>
Taiwan Tourist Shuttle http://en.taiwantrip.com.tw/line/17?x=4&y=2
East Coast National Scenic Area http://www.eastcoast-nsa.gov.tw/en-us
Sanxiantai http://www.eastcoast-nsa.gov.tw/en-us/Attractions/Detail/74
plastic love 意思 在 EAT AT HOME 食・家 Youtube 的最佳解答
#蘋果點心 #聖誕party食物 #蘋果批 #聖誕點心
蘋果派是我請朋友來我家時常做的菜式,所以特意選了這個來做和大家Q&A的影片。剛巧蘋果派的餡料由蘋果加入不同的香料如肉桂、丁香、八角和糖煮成,濃濃的香料味就像提示我們聖誕節快到了。
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這個短片第一次用一邊做菜,一邊回答問題的形式表達,我在準備的時候就像一邊和大家閒談一樣,雖然我們之間很多也未有見過面,在這個影片的製作過程中又好像跟大家的距離拉近了。大部份的問題其實在message已回了,如果沒有放在影片裏請見諒喔,這是因為片長有限而我是隨意將問題放上去的,如遺漏了的請不要介意再給我訊息喔。
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多謝大家對我的提問,你們所有的問題很有意思呢。如有機會真的很想有機會一起和大家做料理互相交流,想想已感到會是難得的經驗了。
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製作蘋果派時有以下幾點可以留意喔。
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* 牛油派皮在製作上,在角落的位置厚度比較難以弄得平均,如利用不同的模具壓平底部和週邊,可令派皮的厚度保持平均。
* 牛油派皮在多次擀皮後可能會軟化而容易付在保鮮膜上,如將麵團再放入冰箱/雪櫃一會,讓麵團變得硬一點又可再次塑型。
* 蘋果派餡用到大量的香料,如果家中沒有其中一款可以直接省去。之前我做的時後只用肉桂粉,今次加上肉桂枝和蘋果同煮,味道更香濃了。
* 在煮好蘋果派餡後可夾起同煮的香料,那便不會影響食感。
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希望大家喜歡這個食譜吧。
份量:直徑22cm烤盤
材料
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蘋果批皮材料
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中筋麵粉420克
砂糖130克
鹽一茶匙
牛油250g
雞蛋兩隻
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蘋果批餡料
.
牛油10克
紅蘋果(小)6個
(去皮後淨肉大約600克)
砂糖80克
香草/雲尼拿精華一湯匙
肉桂粉3茶匙
檸檬汁一湯匙
肉桂枝一條
丁香兩粒
八角一粒
粟粉兩湯匙,用70毫升水拌勻
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蛋液(掃上批面)材料
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雞蛋半隻
牛奶/水半湯匙
做法
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批皮
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牛油從冰箱裏取出,待稍為放軟後,切粒。
牛油和砂糖放入攪拌機或廚師機,以中速(我家的廚師機最快為五度,這裏用二度)攪拌直至拌勻。
加入中筋麵粉以中速拌勻。
雞蛋略為打發後,分三次加入麵團內拌勻。
麵團形成後,分成兩半(批底及批面)用保鮮膜蓋著並塑形至長方型狀,以方便之後成批皮,以保鮮膜包好放在冰箱/雪櫃裏至少30分鐘至過夜。
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麵團冷卻好後,從冰箱取出待略為軟化後,大約30分鐘,取出其中一塊麵團隔著保鮮膜用麵棍將麵團推開成大約0.5厘米厚批皮。
將批皮蓋在模具上,蓋著保鮮膜,用杯子或模具蓋平批底和週邊位置。放入冰箱,備用。
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另一份麵團隔著保鮮膜用麵棍將麵團推開成大約0.5厘米厚批皮,?成一厘米闊的長條型,將麵團條做出辮子,做出網型並裁成模具合適大小,放在牛油紙上,放入冰箱,備用。
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蘋果餡料
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蘋果去皮,切成薄片。
在一個鍋子裏加入牛油10克,開中火,放入蘋果、砂糖、香草/雲尼拿精華、肉桂粉、檸檬汁、肉桂枝、丁香和八角,不時攪拌以防止結塊。
粟粉兩湯匙加入水70毫升拌勻,加入蘋果內,煮至沸騰。
關火後盛起,蘋果餡料可早一日準備放在冰箱內,令蘋果更有香料味。
.
組合
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焗爐預熱至180攝氏度。
雞蛋略為打發,和牛奶/水拌勻。
批皮和批面從冰箱內取出,分別均勻擀開。批面擀開後切成一厘米闊長條,編成格紋。批皮放入模具,蘋果餡倒入批皮內,上面蓋上批面。
在批面掃上蛋液。
註:如麵團擀開後變軟,可放在雪櫃/冰箱中待略為凝固後才繼續製作。
放入焗爐以180度焗一小時,直至表面金黃。在週邊蓋上錫紙以防止燒焦。
蘋果批從焗爐取出後放涼,切件後享用。
Apple Pie
Baking tin with 22cm diameter
Ingredients
Apple pie crust ingredients
420g all purpose flour
130g granulated sugar
1 teaspoon of salt
250g of unsalted butter
2 eggs
Apple pie filling ingredients
10g of butter
6 small size apples (about 600g after peeling)
80g granulated sugar
1 tablespoon of vanilla essence
3 teaspoons of cinnamon powder
1 tablespoon of lemon juice
1 cinnamon stick
2 cloves
1 star anise
2 tablespoons of corn starch, mixed with 70ml of water
Other ingredients
1/2 egg
1/2 tablespoon of milk or water
Directions
Pie crust
Take out the butter from the fridge. Cut it into cubes.
Put the butter and granulated sugar into the blender or kitchen machine, blend with medium speed until it is well mixed. Add all purpose flour and mix well.
Beat the egg, put into the dough in three batches.
After the dough is formed. Split the dough into two. Roll the dough in rectangular shape. Cover it up with plastic wrap and put it into the fridge for 30 minutes or overnight.
Take out the dough from the fridge and let it warm for a while . Roll it to 0.5cm thick. Put the dough on the baking tin and cover with plastic wrap. Press the dough evenly with a mold or a cup. Put it into the fridge again and save for later.
Roll another dough to 0.5cm thick. Cut it into stripe and make the net. Put it on the baking paper and store in the fridge and save for later.
Apple filling
Slice the apple.
Put 10g of butter in a cooking pot. Turn on the heat to medium. Put sugar, vanilla essence, cinnamon powder, lemon juice, cinnamon stick, cloves, star anise and stir it to prevent it clogs.
Mix the corn starch with the water and put it into the apple. Cook until it boils.
Turn off the heat and cool down a little bit.
The apple filling can be stored in the fridge for later use or it can be used right after it cooks.
Assemble
Pre-heat the oven to 180 degree celsius.
Beat half egg and mix well with 1/2 tablespoon of milk or water.
Take out the pie crust from the fridge and put the cooked apple inside. Cover with another pie crust on the top. Brush with the egg wash.
Bake the pie for 1 hour in 180 degree celsius. Cover the edge with tin foil to prevent it burns.
Cool the apple pie in room temperate for a while after baking. Cut it into slice and serve.
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MY GEAR
影片拍攝 Filming:
Camera/ Sony α7RII
Lens/ Sony Zeiss FE 24-70 f/4
Tripod/ 190XPRO Aluminium 4-Section Camera Tripod
Editing / iMovie
相片拍攝 Photography:
Camera/ Nikon D700
Lens/ Nikon 105mm f/2.8 micro
背景音樂 Background Music:
“One” by @Sarah Kang Music on artlist.io
“Summer Is for Falling in Love - Instrumental Version” by @Sarah Kang Music on artlist.io