【#Podcast更新了】
#菜雞變司機
EP3:為什麼不該拿學校教的東西來投資?你只要學會這些就不用花大錢去上 ___ 了!(會計篇)
🎙️ Podcast 連結:https://gamma.soci.vip/
📩 免費電子報訂閱: https://bit.ly/39U5HKw
✍🏻 分析全文:https://gamma.to/notes/RlQonteyuo9mfv8Lxd2Y
🔖 各位投資人要謹記於心的是,會計學、金融、稅務等知識都只是投資的基礎,投資有 99% 的時間都應該花在了解一間公司的商業本質、產業狀況和了解自己在公開市場中參與的賽局(誰是你與你對做的對手,為什麼你比對方更有優勢)。這些知識都只是基礎中的基礎,了解這些知識後並不會給你任何投資上的優勢(因為公開市場上的投資人都知道這些基礎知識了)。
🔖 會計學 (Accounting):在學校,你會學到複式簿記 (Double bookkeeping)、損益表 (Income Statement)、資產負債表 (Balance Sheet)、現金流量表 (Cash Flow Statement) 和成本會計 (Cost accounting),也可能會在更進階的課程中學到移轉訂價 (Transfer Pricing)。
成本會計和移轉訂價只對那些在大公司會計部門工作的人是重要的,負責這些工作的人會獲得他們應得的報酬。但是對於一般公司投資人而言,這兩個可以說是最沒有用處的知識。
🔖 1. 資產項目 (Assets)
-現金與約當現金 (Cash & Cash Equivalents):有價證券 (Marketable Securities,市場流動性高的證券) 與現金沒有任何差別,所以有價證券被當成現金與約當現金。
-應收帳款 (Account Receivable):應收賬款是指企業因銷售商品、提供勞務等業務,應向購買單位收取的款項。應收帳款可以透過 Factoring 來改善現金部位。
-存貨:有許多方法可以來計算存貨,比如說先進先出法 (First In, First Out - FIFO)、後進先出法 (Last In, First Out - LIFO) 和移動平均法,這是一個非常有趣的項目。但你如果你不是從事不良資產投資的話,那麼不用去在意這些不同的方法。
-淨土地、廠房和設備 (Net PPnE):資本支出 (Capex) 花出去後就會變成這個項目。這個項目可以被質押來獲得優惠利率的有擔保借款。
-無形資產 (Intangibles):這可以是從軟體資本化得到的商譽 (Goodwill) 或是來自併購行為的商譽。當資產負債表上有這個項目,攤銷 (被當做支出) 不會影響到現金流,所以當你發現一間公司有很龐大的無形資產和攤銷項目時,你應該要去觀察這家公司的 EBITDA 或是 EBITA (因為兩者都是計算攤銷前盈餘),把這兩個當成產生現金流能力的替代指標會是更好的觀察方式。
🔖 2. 負債項目 (Liabilities)
-應付帳款 (Account Payable):需要付出去的款項。
-債務 (Debt):這個項目是從銀行借來的資金或是透過公司發行公司債所獲得的資金。這個項目在計算淨負債時很重要。
-財務租賃 / 營運租賃 (Financial Leases / Operating Leases) :這兩個項目是否該被歸類成負債是有爭議的。但 Gamma 通常只要這兩個項目出現在資產負債表,就會把這兩個項目當成負債。
-遞延營收 (Deferred Revenue):這個項目對於 SaaS 公司而言通常是很重要的指標,可以當成在滿足客戶需求前,客戶所做出的訂單,並當成未來的債務。這是一個營收的領先指標,所以追蹤一家公司的遞延營收在預測未來的營收上是很重要的。
🔖 3. 權益項目 (Equity)
-少數股東權益 (Minority Interest):這是由少數股東所持有的股東權益,這大部分是由母公司所持有。
-股東權益 (Shareholder equity):這個項目只對一些很看重資產負債表的商業模式才重要(例如:金融機構就需要去注意的數字),因為他們被規定必須要維持一些資本項目上要求。除非你正計算一間公司在清算的情況下會如何 (商業價值是負的),不然這個項目其實不是很重要。
🔖 你只需要搞懂這些損益表的項目
-營收:每間公司對營收的定義都不同。當你使用一些會用到營收的指標,比如說 EV / Sales 並拿來比較多間公司,你會想要確保這些公司對於營收的定義都是一樣的。打個比方,$ADYEN vs $SQ vs $PTPL 或 $TTD vs $APPS 這兩種比較組合中,它們對於營收的定義是不一樣的,所以在兩個例子中,直接拿 EV / Sales 不會是一個估值的好指標。
#更多內容於全文中
同時也有2部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過15萬的網紅豐富,也在其Youtube影片中提到,主持人:楊應超 第一季-第11集:分析師是如何挑股票的 節目直播時間:週五 14點 本集播出日期:2020.11.20 ⏭ 章節: 00:00 頻道片頭 00:07 開場 01:09 節目片頭 01:27 分析師是如何挑股票的 12:43 Q&A:投資的稅務規劃和手續費很重要 26:48 請繼續提...
「operating cash flow」的推薦目錄:
- 關於operating cash flow 在 Gamma 美股科技投資 Facebook 的最佳貼文
- 關於operating cash flow 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳貼文
- 關於operating cash flow 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳解答
- 關於operating cash flow 在 豐富 Youtube 的精選貼文
- 關於operating cash flow 在 Thai Pham Youtube 的精選貼文
- 關於operating cash flow 在 12.5 Analyzing Cash Flow Information 的評價
operating cash flow 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳貼文
🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.
這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html
(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).
關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.
分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".
分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.
🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.
Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.
產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.
Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."
🌻SPAC熱潮退卻,初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示,在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%,市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"
"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金,以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者,都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊,他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場,所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上,SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元,高於一年前的約1,000億美元,反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。
但即便如此,今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠,扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域,其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡,一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"
"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環,因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價,投資者就更有可能這樣做,而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前,在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中,超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。
投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少,讓其更難實現業務目標,並可能加劇股價跌勢。"
https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC
🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.
The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.
https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972
Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers
operating cash flow 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳解答
🌻本周做的功課與閱讀
(冷靜詭異的大盤.........可能是因為此, 投資人跑去玩meme stocks了)(台灣時間今晚會公佈CPI)
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/06/blog-post_9.html
🌻Five Key Points from the May Employment Report (by Goldman Sachs)
https://texasnewstoday.com/five-key-points-from-the-may-employment-report/300177/
🌻謝謝參與年報導讀的朋友! 抱歉那天規劃不週, 導致時間拉長了許多! 不過還是希望你們有收穫. 很喜歡這樣的交流. 我有時間會做個10分鐘的影片, 來將內容做更濃縮的整理.
🌻如何挑股?
之前有分享過, 我挑成長股會看哪些東西:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/10/blog-post_28.html
而隨著閱讀的資料越多, 也發現我的挑股方法跟投行有重覆的地方. 而看了很多基金經理人跟投行的挑股方式, 其實方法都大同小異.
像下面這家公司會看的4M(“four M model”—management, moat, market size, and business model), 就跟BofA(美銀美林)看的類似(BofA introduces its "4M framework" for identifying winning stocks in the software group: Market, Moat, Management, and Margin.)
The strategy prioritizes high-quality businesses with organic top-line growth and the potential for continued, long-term high growth—and whose stocks the fund can hold for years. The team applies its “four M model”—management, moat, market size, and business model—to narrow down candidates. It seeks strong managers running companies that have a well-defined economic moat, or competitive advantage, while operating in large markets. It also likes business models where the companies are market-share leaders and produce industry-leading free-cash-flow margins and incremental returns on capital.
The team applies its “four M model”—management, moat, market size, and business model—to narrow down candidates.
(Source: https://webreprints.djreprints.com/58288.html)
這樣的挑股對我的幫助很大:
1. 可以幫我聚焦, 專注在好公司上, 畢竟美股公司很多, 人的體力跟時間也有限.
2. 若一開始就把公司挑對, 以後的煩惱也會比較少. 公司若出了問題, 也不用花太多時間去做研究&判斷.
3. 一開始挑對公司, 之後也會跟著公司的成長, 建立投資上的信心(一個正向的循環).
🌻公司介紹(不是推薦): Olo(olo)
(P.S. 好久沒做這樣的介紹了. 這其實是我挺喜歡的一個單元. 以後看到還不錯的公司, 會繼續介紹.)
Olo是幫餐廳做營運的SaaS公司. 鼎泰豐(美國地區)是他們的客戶之一. 很多美國知名的餐廳也是(可見下方截圖). 成長率驚人--尤其是疫情這段期間, 很多餐廳積極做外送外帶, 就得靠他們的系統, 訂單才不會亂掉.
供有興趣的投資人做進一步的研究.
🌻好文分享
"最後要說的是:你永遠賺不到超出你認知範圍之外的錢,除非你靠運氣。但是靠運氣賺到的錢,往往會靠實力虧掉,這是一種必然。
你所賺的每一分錢,都是你對這個世界認知的變現。你所虧的每一分錢,都是因為你對這個世界的認知不足。這個世界最大的公平在於,當一個人的財富大於他的認知之時,這個世界有1萬種法子收割你,直到你的認知與財富相匹配為止。而避免我們淪為孤絕境地的辦法,永遠只有一個,那就是看準目標與方向,沉靜的努力並持續。"
https://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/2295749?fbclid=IwAR0YxwwHTcWIK2-botY806X9e2_HNPy05qdcUU6zsPmCKdck9Vf-fnGVdo8
🌻投資佳句:
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” -- Sir John Templeton (約翰坦伯頓爵士)
Picture: 剛入手的蘭花. 聽說蘭花難度挺高. 來試試. Olo年報截圖.
operating cash flow 在 豐富 Youtube 的精選貼文
主持人:楊應超
第一季-第11集:分析師是如何挑股票的
節目直播時間:週五 14點
本集播出日期:2020.11.20
⏭ 章節:
00:00 頻道片頭
00:07 開場
01:09 節目片頭
01:27 分析師是如何挑股票的
12:43 Q&A:投資的稅務規劃和手續費很重要
26:48 請繼續提問:你活著不是為了工作,祝大家早日達到FIRE財務自由
29:14 節目片尾
29:41 頻道片尾
📝 名詞補充:
1. Active Investment:主動投資
2. Passive Investment:被動投資
3. Income Statement (P&L):公司損益表,Profit and Loss
4. Revenue:公司營收或收入
5. Gross Profit Margin:毛利率
6. OPEX (Operating Expense):營運費用
7. Operating Income/Profits:營運利潤
8. EPS:每股獲利
9. Non-Operating Income:非營運,業外收入
10. Cash Flow Statements:現金流量表
11. Cash from Operating:營運收到的現金
12. Working Capital:營運資金
13. Cash from Investing:投資來的現金流
14. Cash from Financing:財務操作來的現金流
15. Balance Sheet:資產負債表
16. ROE:Return on Equity
17. ROA:Return on Asset
18. ROI:Return on Investment
19. Inventory Days:存貨天數
20. Account Receivable:應收帳款
21. Capital Group Study:20年股市投資的回報研究
22. Market Timing:挑進出股市的時機
23. Accenture:美國有名的管理顧問公司
24. Gift Tax:贈與稅
25. Estate Tax:遺產稅
26. ROTH IRA:美國不用上稅的退休投資
27. Capital Gain Tax:資本利得稅
28. Front End Load:買基金時先交的手續費
29. Back End Load:賣基金時後交的手續費
30. No-Load Mutual Fund:不需要付交易收續費的基金
31. Management Expense:每年基金管理的費用
32. Private Equity:私募基金
33. Water Mark:也叫Hurdle Rate,每年收益的最低標準,過了後管理公司才能分到20%的利潤
34. 2/20:每年2%管理費,錢賺過Water Mark後收20%利益
35. Skin in the Game:切膚之痛
36. Exposure:風險
37. Incentive:激勵
38. News Flow:每天的新聞變動
📚 參考書訊:《財務自由的人生:跟著首席分析師楊應超學華爾街的投資技巧和工作效率,40歲就過FIRE的優質生活》 https://eslite.me/w24ad
#楊應超 #財務自由 #股票
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operating cash flow 在 Thai Pham Youtube 的精選貼文
Đọc hiểu ngôn ngữ kinh doanh (P3): Bảng lưu chuyển tiền tệ
Một công ty có thu nhập cao hay lợi nhuận sau thuế cao, ắt hẳn là nơi xứng đáng để nhà đầu tư gửi gắm từng đồng tiền mồ hôi xương máu mà mình kiếm được?
TUY NHIÊN, những chia sẻ dưới đây của tôi sẽ khiến bạn xét kỹ hơn nhận định này! Vì mục tiêu cuối cùng của kinh doanh không phải tạo ra thu nhập là đủ, mà còn phải là tiền mặt, như máu huyết lưu thông trong cơ thể vậy.
⭕️ Tham khảo thêm Phương pháp đầu tư cơ bản của sách Payback Time - Ngày Đòi Nợ tại: http://happy.live/san-pham/payback-time-ngay-doi-no/
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Hãy click vào các links dưới đây để xem lại các video RẤT HAY của tôi về các chủ đề: Đầu tư tài chính, đầu tư chứng khoán, phát triển bản thân, và đầu tư cho kinh doanh làm giàu của bạn nhé!
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operating cash flow 在 12.5 Analyzing Cash Flow Information 的推薦與評價
Answer: Three common cash flow measures used to evaluate organizations are (1) operating cash flow ratio, (2) capital expenditure ratio, and (3) free cash flow. ... <看更多>