關於 how big is russia ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

【停滯型通膨即將來臨嗎？】

我認為我們即將在一兩年內經歷全球大部分地區的停滯型通膨（stagflation）。我認為投資的方向也會因此微調。

1. 濫發通貨的後果比我們想像中嚴重

我在《後疫情時代中國面對的經濟環境》一文中預測的通貨膨脹現象，已經從資本市場、房地產市場逐漸拓展到美國一般消費市場。

從媒體報導或社群網站上的照片記錄看來，普遍性的消費商品價格上漲已然發生。（見圖）

如同諾貝爾經濟學獎得主F. A. Hayek曾以蜂蜜形容貨幣的流動，在注入貨幣的過程，會造成某部分價格上漲，然後才慢慢拓展出去。而以當今Fed的貨幣干預手段，我們可以看到美國國債利率的下跌與股票、衍生性金融商品市場的價格上漲為常見的起點。而最後，亦如另一位諾貝爾獎得主M. Friedman所言：「通貨膨脹始終是貨幣現象」。

我相信讀者也在許多財經媒體上看到有關通貨膨脹的警告或討論了。

經濟學家Joseph Carson指出，美國在1970年代的CPI統計是包含房地產價格，因此1979年CPI成長11.3％中有相當比例是因為當年房地產價格激增。但現今的統計卻排除了房地產價格。而新冠疫情之後美國房地產價格因濫印貨幣而飆漲，故即便美國官方公佈的過去12個月CPI增長5.4%，但如果採取1970年代的標準計入房地產價格因素，則實際CPI漲幅應該是兩位數！

這也表示，Fed聲稱通貨膨脹只是暫時且不嚴重的論點，很可能是基於刻意被低估的統計方法。另一個值得一提的，是Fed自疫情封城後每個月都買入$400億美元房貸為基礎的金融證券（mortgage-backed securities），但我們也都清楚2008年美國金融危機的一大肇因就是美國聯邦政府轄下兩個專門替房貸信用擔保的房利美、房地美機構（Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac），其相當於政府干預市場的行為扭曲並蒙蔽了市場對真實風險的判斷。

更值得警醒的是如顧問公司MBS Highway指出美國Fed實質買入的房貸基礎證券金額恐怕高達$1000億美元每月，硬生生人為壓低房貸利率0.25~0.35%。

綜合來看，Fed刻意濫發通貨不但眾所周知，很可能實際規模超越我們理解。而美國政府的CPI統計卻因排除房地產與股票等資產，無法正確地理解真實通膨現狀。

2. 政府引發通膨並非萬靈丹 -- 菲利普曲線早已失效

美國上班族實質週薪相較去年同期收入下降了1.7%，製造業員工更是下降了2.2%。

然而根據總體經濟學的菲利普曲線與相關理論認為，通貨膨脹引發的實質薪資下降理論上應該可以提高就業。可事實上我們看到的是五月份高達900萬份職位仍空懸找不到勞工。根據華爾街日報報導，六月份失業率5.9%竟仍高於新冠疫情前的3.5%。

為何如此？早幾年我已經多次撰文談過，菲利普曲線只是基於紐西蘭某一小短時期的統計數字，從經濟理論上就存在內在矛盾與瑕疵，根本不是個普遍可適用的通論，頂多算是個「特例」。因此我們常看到經濟學家質疑此曲線失效實屬正常。

從制度經濟學角度觀察，貨幣政策的確可以引發通貨膨脹造成實質薪資下降，但工作機會與適任員工二者的媒合本身並非不存在交易費用，這意味著並非實質薪資下降馬上需求曲線丟進來，交易量（即就業人數）立即增大。

美國Fed的達拉斯分行4月份報告就指出：30.9％因疫情失業的勞工並未重新回到他們原本的舊工作，此數字還高過去年7月的19.8％。

根據美國人力網站ZipRecruiter近日研究發現幾個目前美國就業市場現象：

a. 本來在娛樂或餐飲旅館行業的就業人士，被疫情的強迫停業嚇怕了，高達70%欲轉行，但多數卻因為行業專業不同難以順利轉換跑道。

b. 過去幾個月來新開出的職缺與失業人數竟然同步上升。

c. 因為疫情許多人跑去城市郊區甚至鄉村避難，結果開出職缺的區域與求職者所在區域出現明顯分離。

d. 同樣因為疫情封城管制造成的後果，紐約市區星巴克的今年五月來店人數相較兩年前同期下降65%，工作機會也隨之發生改變。

e. 每週$400美元的失業補助讓許多失業者不急於找工作。溫蒂漢堡、必勝客、Applebee's、Taco Bell等知名連鎖餐廳提供額外的獎金補貼也依然找不到員工。

而這一些因交易費用增加產生的就業市場成交量下降，從制度經濟學角度來看難以依靠貨幣政策改善，而是必須透過放寬就業市場法規來協助降低交易費用。可是我們看到卻是迷信政府管制的新一任Biden政府。

3. Biden總統的行政命令

今年7月初美國總統Biden簽署了一系列行政命令，新增了橫跨農業、健康產業、物流、交通、科技產業、勞工...等各種管制，聲稱可以透過政府干預帶來產業競爭狀態的改善與消費者/勞工權益。

我們可以從Biden總統的發言看到他對基礎經濟學概念的嚴重無知與缺乏：“Capitalism without competition isn’t capitalism. It’s exploitation,” ... “Without healthy competition, big players can change and charge whatever they want, and treat you however they want. And for too many Americans that means accepting a bad deal for things that you can’t go without.”

經濟學認為競爭無處不在，而不同的侷限條件會導致競爭的態樣改變。某些侷限條件下的競爭會有較高的租值消散，某些則較少。純粹市價競爭的自由市場是理論上完全無租值消散的一種競爭態樣。

因此，政府管制往往帶來的只是更多租值消散與尋租空間。誠如雷根總統說過：「政府本身就是問題，而不是解答。」

所以我們不難發現試圖以更多管制措施、更多政府干預來「使市場健康競爭」的Biden政府，必然是一場徒勞無功且弊病叢生的白工。只是所增加的交易費用，依然是由美國人民來承擔，這對通貨膨脹烏雲蓋頂的底層百姓而言，恐怕雪上加霜。

還記得中美貿易戰多篇文章我均指出，從正確的經濟學邏輯角度來看，時任Trump政府對中國的各種關稅或非關稅貿易壁壘，最終的成本承擔者只會是美國消費者。

我們看到前任Fed主席，現任美國財政部部長Janet L. Yellen也於7月中旬接受紐約時報採訪時鬆口承認Trump時代對中國的關稅障礙結果是在傷害美國消費者。（"Tariffs are taxes on consumers. In some cases it seems to me what we did hurt American consumers, ..."）

這樣的錯誤，美國政府百年來犯了無數次。例如我們曾談過Milton Friedman 與George Stigler 兩位諾貝爾經濟學獎得主共同撰寫的知名論文「Roofs or Ceilings? The Current Housing Problem」以1906年甫大地震後225,000人無家可歸的舊金山市為研究對象，發現當時無力管制的市政府放任市場自由定價，結果是多數人很快找到新家，即便是十分貧窮者，也有與之對應的廉價房屋提供（1906 advertisement “Six-room house and bath, with 2 additional rooms in basement having fire-places, nicely furnished; fine piano; … $45."）

但到了1946年，舊金山因人口增長而推出租金管制，明明房屋短缺嚴重性遠不如1906年大地震後的慘狀，但卻發生多數人租不到房子的窘境！

根據二位經濟學大神研究，1906年每一個想租屋的人，大約有10間房子供選擇；但租金管制後的1946年，每375個求租客對應10間房子供給。

更嚴重的實例還有1970年代石油危機期間，美國政府出台的各種價格與非價格管制干預措施的結果，反而更抬高國內石化產品價格，加劇石化產品短缺現象，不但各地加油站大排長龍，不少妙齡女子以身體為代價與加油站老闆員工上床以取得汽油的新聞不絕於耳。

因此我推斷，美國如不放寬對中國的制裁，只會加重自身通膨惡果，同時惡化真實失業狀況。

一方面，管制會加重人民負擔提高交易費用這點已經敘明不再重複；另一方面，中國是美國過去二十年瘋狂印鈔卻未引發嚴重通貨膨脹現象的最大助力。

這點不僅我這樣看，如經濟學名家張五常教授、前任美國聯準會主席Alan Greenspan於2005年美國國會聽證會發言，乃至於經濟學人雜誌2004年10月份的特別報告「Unnaturally low -- China is helping to keep down global interest rates」也做如是想，且不說還有許多經濟學家也持一樣的觀點。

誠如Greenspan於前述聽證會上發言指出，對中國貿易制裁結果必然導致美國民生物價上漲與人民生活品質受損，但卻無任何經濟學理與客觀證據支撐政客謬論 -- 制裁中國並無法改善美國就業率。

可即便Greenspan早在2005年國會上已言者諄諄，顯然後來十幾年美國政客們是聽者藐藐。因為政客利益往往不等同於人民利益，這是民主國家最大的侷限條件。

回過頭看，Biden政府上台以來，不但沒有放寬Trump時代對中國的諸多基於污衊指控而實施的貿易制裁，甚至有變本加厲的態勢。但如此舉措對美國自身其實極為不利。行文至此我們已經可以確定實質經濟成長停滯與通貨膨脹雙擊的「停滯性通膨」將來臨。

4. 歐美國家與日本普遍高負債結果只能以提高稅率或利率為結果。

所謂的「現代貨幣理論（MMT）」根本是一套無視成本的胡扯，違背了「凡有選擇必有代價」的經濟學最基礎侷限。各國瘋狂印鈔當然最後會出現通貨膨脹，不負責任的政府只能以提高稅率或提高利率為代價。

只是每個國家面對的侷限條件不同，使得代價發生的時程或「閥值」有所不同。

通貨膨脹現象說到底是個「貨幣增長率對上經濟成長率」的過程 -- 當貨幣增長率追不上實質經濟成長率，通貨收縮會發生；當貨幣增長率超過實質經濟成長率，則通貨膨脹會發生。注意，我這裡指的「實質經濟成長率」是「真實」的經濟成長，而不是GDP、凱因斯經濟學那套錯誤的觀念。這部分我以前就為文批評過，有興趣的讀者請自行查找。

故，同樣因應新冠疫情而寬鬆貨幣的俄羅斯，其面對的國際經貿環境不比美國日本，自然很快就承受不住通膨壓力於近日宣布一口氣調升利率100個基點至6.5%。（見圖）

美國聯邦政府2021年政府負債$28.5兆美元，是GDP的128.31%。僅利息支出達$4025億美元，佔年度預算5.3%，佔聯邦稅金收入9.8%。如果美國無法成功抑制通貨膨脹，則隨之而來的利率飆升將造成美國財政風險。畢竟市場利率始終是由「無風險利率+風險貼水+預期通貨膨脹率」組成。

我們可以注意到1980年代初期，美國國債淨利息支出增加的時期，其相對應的10年國債利率也大幅攀升。

同樣地，在高通膨率的1980年代初期（藍線），市場利率也曾一度飆升至近20%（黑色虛線）。（見圖）

再看看目前世界主要經濟體的債務狀況（見圖）

新冠疫情之後，世界主要國家的債務風險只增不減。

英國經濟學家，前英格蘭銀行與英國貨幣政策顧問Charles Goodhart警告：「中國帶給全世界的經濟紅利若因其人口結構老化而逐漸消失，則世界必將面對通貨膨脹衝擊。」（"...as aging populations in China and other nations spend more of their savings, average interest rates will rise higher than governments have bargained for...China’s greatest contribution to global growth is now past. This great demographic reversal will lead to a return of inflation.”）

通膨來襲加上實質生產力成長受損的停滯性通膨夾擊下，歐洲與日本等主要經濟體不得不面對更棘手的債務危機。這些國家未來政治與社會的動盪將會是常見的現象。

美元20多年來快速通貨成長下而無明顯國內通膨的一個重要因素，在於其做為世界最主要國際貿易交易結算貨幣的角色，使得世界整體經濟成長大於等於美元通貨成長時，通膨率不易上升。就如Greenspan 2005年在美國國會作證所闡釋，中國作為1990年代以來美國成長最快且體量非常大的貿易夥伴，中國對美元的需求本身就保證了美元的購買力，同時物美價廉的中國製造產品也大幅壓低了美國國內物價增長率。

上個世代扮演此角色的是日本，因此我們也看到日本與中國分別是目前美國國債最大持有國。（Foreign governments owned US$7.053 trillion of US debt in November, including China's US$1.063 trillion, and Japan's US$1.260 trillion, US Treasury data showed. ）

然後在此次疫情重創且血虧的奧運會之後，其逐漸衰退的整體生產力與相當惡化的債務狀況，我懷疑日本還有多少殘存力量支撐美元。

因此我們不難理解為何美國新任Biden政府上台後汲汲營營地尋求與中國高層會面。

結論

人民幣國際化的推進與中美經貿脫鉤二者都會帶來美元實質購買力的衰退與美國通膨惡化。因此美國政府如要避免財政危機，必須做到二件事：a. 解除貿易壁壘，尤其是針對中國的貿易制裁；b. 確保中國繼續願意大額購買美國債券以及使用美元為主要國際貿易結算貨幣。

中國數字人民幣推展與歐洲也開始積極發展數字貨幣的背後，都是直接對美元在國際貿易、金融體系的競爭。一帶一路若越成功也越能協助人民幣國際化。

這些都是美國非常不樂見。因此我們可以看到美國不斷在造謠污衊中國的一帶一路與科技後門監聽等事項，就算明明被抓包踢爆監聽全世界的是美國自己。

然而如同我多次解釋過，美式民主制度下政客的利益與人民利益往往不一致。當鼓動對中仇視有利於競選時，美國政客很難選擇與中國和平、更深度交流的道路；當增加更多政府管制干預與有利於尋租時，政客也是毫不猶豫地如此選擇。所以我們會在未來相當長時間看到精神分裂的美國 -- 又不希望中國在世界經濟影響力增加而欲打壓，但自己又不能真的因打壓中國與之脫鉤。

這種人格分裂狀態恐怕未來十幾年都會是美國政壇主旋律。

因此站在投資人的角度，我選擇把財產壓在美國利率終將上漲這一大方向上。

文章連結：
https://tinyurl.com/58hauwkf

參考資料：

WSJ, "How Much Are Prices Up? Here’s One Family’s Day-to-Day Expenses." July 9, 2021

WSJ, "Job Openings Are at Record Highs. Why Aren’t Unemployed Americans Filling Them?" July 9, 2021

WSJ, "Governments World-Wide Gorge on Record Debt, Testing New Limits" July 12, 2021

范一飞, "关于数字人民币M0定位的政策含义分析" 2020年09月15日

元毓, "宏觀經濟學的尷尬—菲利普曲線死了嗎？" May 8, 2018

NYT, "Yellen Says China Trade Deal Has ‘Hurt American Consumers’" July 16, 2021

WSJ, "Biden Targets Big Business in Sweeping Executive Order to Spur Competition" July 9, 2021

WSJ, "The 2021 Olympics Are Turning Into a $20 Billion Bust for Japan" July 20, 2021

Bank for International Settlement, "CBDCs: an opportunity for the monetary system" BIS Annual Economic Report | 23 June 2021

Barron's, "The Housing Market Is on Fire. The Fed Is Stoking the Flames." July 23, 2021

Barron's, "Disco Inferno: The U.S. Could Be Headed Back to ’70s-Style Stagflation" July 16, 2021

Reuters, "Russia raises key rate to 6.5% in sharpest move since 2014" July 23, 2021

Milton Friedman & George Stigler, "Roofs or Ceilings? The Current Housing Problem" September 1946

Alan Greenspan, "FRB: Testimony" June 23, 2005

The Economist, "Unnaturally low -- China is helping to keep down global interest rates" Oct 2nd 2004

【Press release: Decanter World Wine Awards 2021 winners revealed】
新聞稿：2021 年 Decanter 世界葡萄酒大獎的頂級獲獎者揭曉
（收到新聞稿，不過因為沒有時間翻譯，所以先附上原文與google翻譯，我在另找時間來修正）
From ‘yellow wine’ to California Cabernet Sauvignon, hotly anticipated medals announced in biggest ever Decanter World Wine Awards 7 JULY, LONDON: Full results from the Decanter World Wine Awards 2021 have been released today(7 July), revealing big wins for established wine regions but also many hidden gems from producers making exciting wines across the globe.
從“黃酒”到加州赤霞珠，備受期待的獎牌在有史以來規模最大的 Decanter 世界葡萄酒大獎中揭曉 7 月 7 日，倫敦：2021 年 Decanter 世界葡萄酒大獎的全部結果今天（7 月 7 日）公佈，揭示了已建立的葡萄酒產區的巨大勝利，但也揭示了來自全球生產令人興奮的葡萄酒的生產商的許多隱藏的寶石。
This year marks the biggest ever Decanter World Wine Awards(DWWA), which is already the world’s largest and most influential wine competition thanks to a rigorous judging process overseen by international experts.
今年是有史以來規模最大的Decanter World Wine Awards（DWWA），由於國際專家監督的嚴格評審過程，該獎項已經成為世界上規模最大、最具影響力的葡萄酒大賽。
More than 160 expert judges, including 44 Masters of Wine and 11 Master Sommeliers, tasted 18,094 wines from 56 countries at DWWA 2021, making it a record year for wines tasted.
160多位專家評委，包括44位葡萄酒大師和11位侍酒大師，在DWWA 2021上品嚐了來自56個國家的18,094款葡萄酒，創造了葡萄酒品嚐記錄的一年。
Judging took place over two weeks in Canary Wharf, London, with strict Covid-19 safety protocols in place.
評審在倫敦金絲雀碼頭進行了兩週多的時間，並製定了嚴格的 Covid-19 安全協議。
Only 50 wines, or 0.28% of those tasted, were awarded a prestigious Best in Show medal. There were also 179 Platinum and 635 Gold medals awarded, making up 0.99% and 3.51% respectively of the total wines tasted.
只有 50 種葡萄酒，即品嚐過的葡萄酒的 0.28%，獲得了享有盛譽的最佳展示獎。還頒發了 179 枚白金獎和 635 枚金牌，分別佔品嚐到的葡萄酒總數的 0.99% 和 3.51%。
Spain had a particularly strong year, winning nine Best in Show medals, compared to four last year.
西班牙今年表現尤為出色，贏得了 9 枚最佳表演獎牌，而去年為 4 枚。
Spanish wines also won 20 Platinum medals and 63 Golds this year.
西班牙葡萄酒今年還獲得了 20 枚白金獎牌和 63 枚金牌。
There were also plenty of brilliant medal-winning wines from other top wine-producing countries and regions, from California to many parts of France, Italy, Australia, South Africa, Argentina, Chile and New Zealand.
還有許多來自其他頂級葡萄酒生產國家和地區的出色獲獎葡萄酒，從加利福尼亞到法國、意大利、澳大利亞、南非、阿根廷、智利和新西蘭的許多地區。
DWWA has a track record of shining a spotlight on exciting, under-the-radar wines all over the wine world, too – and 2021 proved no exception.
DWWA 也一直關注著葡萄酒世界中令人興奮、鮮為人知的葡萄酒——事實證明，2021 年也不例外。
DWWA 2021: A year of firsts
DWWA 2021：首創之年
DWWA 2021 included a first Best in Show medal for a ‘Vin Jaune’ – or ‘yellow wine’ – a speciality of the Jura region of eastern France. The winning wine was Domaine Berthet-Bondet, Château-Chalon 2013, made from 100% Savagnin.
DWWA 2021 包括法國東部侏羅地區特產“Vin Jaune”或“黃酒”的首個最佳展示獎。獲獎葡萄酒是 2013 年 Château-Chalon 酒莊 Berthet-Bondet，由 100% Savagnin 釀製。
DWWA 2021 judges included in their tasting notes, “If you’ve never tried Vin Jaune, you couldn’t do better than begin with this 2013.
DWWA 2021 評委在他們的品酒筆記中寫道：“如果您從未嘗試過 Vin Jaune，那麼從 2013 年開始，您將做得更好。
“Pale but emphatically gold, it has aromas which evoke nuts, wild mushrooms, umami, yeast and cream, but in which some lingering sweetness of fruit survives, too (Savagnin for Vin Jaune is picked very ripe).”
“淡而強烈的金色，它的香氣讓人聯想到堅果、野生蘑菇、鮮味、酵母和奶油，但也有一些揮之不去的水果甜味（用於 Vin Jaune 的 Savagnin 採摘得非常成熟）。”
There was also success in Switzerland for the Savagnin grape variety, not to be confused with the similarly named Sauvignon Blanc.
Savagnin 葡萄品種在瑞士也取得了成功，不要與同名的長相思混淆。
Wine cooperative St. Jodern Kellerei in the Valais region already farms some of Europe’s highest vineyards, and it reached the summit of DWWA in 2021 after its ‘Heida Barrique’ 2019 won a Best in Show medal.
瓦萊州地區的葡萄酒合作社 St. Jodern Kellerei 已經種植了一些歐洲最高的葡萄園，並在其 2019 年的“Heida Barrique”獲得最佳展示獎後於 2021 年登上了 DWWA 的頂峰。
Judges said in their notes on the wine, “Heida is the name used in the high Valais (or Wallis) for Savagnin, and our judges were very impressed by the range and expressive uniqueness of Swiss Savagnin this year.”
評委在酒評中說：“Heida 是高瓦萊州（或瓦利斯）用於 Savagnin 的名稱，我們的評委對今年瑞士 Savagnin 的範圍和表現力的獨特性印象深刻。”
They added, “This is a refreshingly aromatic yet full-flavoured wine, striking and singular: a horn sounding in the clear Alpine air.”
他們補充說：“這是一款清新芳香但味道濃郁的葡萄酒，引人注目且獨特：在清澈的阿爾卑斯山空氣中吹響號角。”
DWWA 2021 also saw a first Best in Show medal for France’s Savoie region, awarded to a 100%
Roussanne white wine from Domaine Charles Gonnet for the 2020 vintage.
來自Domaine Charles Gonnet 的2020 年份Roussanne 白葡萄酒。
Friuli in north-east Italy made its debut in the DWWA Best in Show winners’ list, thanks to Muzic winery’s Stare Brajde ‘Collio’ 2019 white wine.
得益於 Muzic 酒莊的 Stare Brajde ‘Collio’ 2019 白葡萄酒，意大利東北部的弗留利首次出現在 DWWA 最佳展示獎獲獎名單中。
There were also two Golds for Ukraine, the first time the country has struck Gold at DWWA.
烏克蘭也獲得了兩枚金牌，這是該國首次在 DWWA 上獲得金牌。
Sarah Jane Evans, Co-Chair at DWWA 2021, said of the results, “You know that this is something that's been through a really rigorous judging process. We're not playing at judging here. This is blind tasting.
DWWA 2021 聯合主席莎拉·簡·埃文斯 (Sarah Jane Evans) 談到結果時說：“你知道，這是經過非常嚴格的評審過程的事情。我們不是在這裡評判。這是盲品。
We have absolutely no idea what the wines are and we're tasting them not only in panels together where we have to each discuss and think about them deeply, but then they go up to Regional Chairs who are experts in those countries.”
我們完全不知道這些葡萄酒是什麼，我們不僅要一起在小組中品嚐它們，我們每個人都必須深入討論和思考它們，然後他們還會上到這些國家的專家區域主席那裡。”
She added, “It's a very, very rigorous process, but it highlights fabulous wines at the end of it.”
她補充說：“這是一個非常非常嚴格的過程，但它在最後突出了美妙的葡萄酒。”
Andrew Jefford, also a DWWA Co-Chair, said, “DWWA is the world's leading wine competition. I'm absolutely thrilled to take part in it every year because having tasted in a number of other competitions I know how well it's organised, how carefully everything is done. So if you get a medal from DWWA it really is worth having and everybody respects it internationally. We get entries from every corner of the wine world, so it is as it were the closest you can get to a universal benchmark.”
DWWA 聯合主席 Andrew Jefford 說：“DWWA 是世界領先的葡萄酒競賽。我非常高興每年都參加它，因為在參加過許多其他比賽后，我知道它組織得多麼好，一切都做得多麼仔細。因此，如果您從 DWWA 獲得獎牌，那確實值得擁有，而且每個人都在國際上尊重它。我們收到來自葡萄酒世界各個角落的參賽作品，因此它是您可以獲得的最接近通用基準的作品。”
More highlights from DWWA 2021
DWWA 2021 的更多亮點
Noteworthy highlights include two Best in Show medals for German Pinot Noir and Chardonnay, showcasing the country’s ability to make top wines with these classic Burgundian grape varieties. A 2011-vintage English sparkling wine also won a Best in Show medal.
值得注意的亮點包括德國黑比諾和霞多麗的兩枚最佳展示獎牌，展示了該國使用這些經典勃艮第葡萄品種釀造頂級葡萄酒的能力。 一款 2011 年份的英國起泡酒也獲得了最佳展示獎。
In terms of more unexpected wins, in North America, there was a Gold medal for a New York Sauvignon Blanc Sémillon blend produced in the North Fork of Long Island AVA, while in Canada Niagara Peninsula winery Hidden Bench won a Best in Show medal for its Felseck Vineyard Chardonnay 2018.
在更多出人意料的勝利方面，在北美，長島 AVA 北叉生產的紐約長相思賽美蓉混釀獲得了金牌，而在加拿大，尼亞加拉半島的酒廠 Hidden Bench 則獲得了最佳展示獎。 Felseck 葡萄園霞多麗 2018。
Russia won its second ever Platinum medal, while wines from Japan won two Platinums and four Gold medals.
俄羅斯獲得了有史以來第二枚白金獎，而日本的葡萄酒則獲得了兩枚白金獎和四枚金牌。
Classic styles from well-known areas also performed extremely well at DWWA 2021, demonstrating why they enjoy such vaunted reputations among wine lovers.
知名產區的經典款式在 DWWA 2021 上也表現異常出色，證明了它們為何在葡萄酒愛好者中享有如此吹噓的聲譽。
The list of Best in Show medals includes Champagne, California Cabernet Sauvignon and Pinot Noir, Barossa Valley Shiraz and Margaret River Chardonnay from Australia, Rioja Gran Reserva from the lauded 2004 vintage, South African Cabernet Sauvignon, Vinho Verde from Portugal and Malbec from Argentina.
最佳展示獎牌名單包括香檳、加州赤霞珠和黑比諾、澳大利亞的巴羅薩谷設拉子和瑪格麗特河霞多麗、來自備受讚譽的 2004 年份的里奧哈特級珍藏、南非赤霞珠、葡萄牙的維尼奧維德和阿根廷的馬爾貝克。
Excitement surrounding the Barolo 2016 vintage in Italy’s Piedmont region was given a further boost after Diego Morra’s ‘Monvigliero’ 2016 was awarded a Best in Show medal.
在迭戈·莫拉 (Diego Morra) 的 2016 年“蒙維列羅”(Monvigliero) 獲得最佳表演獎之後，圍繞意大利皮埃蒙特地區的巴羅洛 (Barolo) 2016 年份的興奮度進一步提升。
In total, Italy won seven Best in Show medals, also including Prosecco and Brunello di Montalcino DOCG wines, as well as a Timorasso dry white from Piedmont and a Vin Santo di Carmignano sweet wine from Tuscany.
意大利總共贏得了七項最佳展示獎牌，其中還包括 Prosecco 和 Brunello di Montalcino DOCG 葡萄酒，以及來自 Piedmont 的 Timorasso 幹白和來自托斯卡納的 Vin Santo di Carmignano 甜酒。
Some Best in Show awards went to lesser-known styles from top producer nations. New Zealand is renowned for Sauvignon Blanc but it was Tohu’s ‘Whenua Matua’ Chardonnay 2018 that won a Best in Show medal at DWWA 2021. Chile’s La Causa, Cinsault-País-Carignan 2019 from Itata Valley also received this top accolade.
一些最佳展示獎頒給了來自頂級製作國的鮮為人知的款式。 新西蘭以長相思而聞名，但 Tohu 的“Whenua Matua”霞多麗 2018 年在 DWWA 2021 上獲得了最佳展示獎。智利的 La Causa、Itata Valley 的 Cinsault-País-Carignan 2019 也獲得了這一最高榮譽。
Elsewhere, Greece narrowly beat its strong performance at last year’s competition. A Greek Assyrtiko white wine won a Best in Show medal, and the country received six Platinum and 16 Gold medals at DWWA 2021 overall.
在其他地方，希臘在去年的比賽中以微弱優勢擊敗其強勁表現。 一款希臘 Assyrtiko 白葡萄酒獲得了最佳展示獎，該國在 2021 年 DWWA 上獲得了 6 枚白金獎和 16 枚金牌。
ps.你可以閱讀Olivia Mason July 7, 2021的報導：https://reurl.cc/lRpXrd ；或到：https://awards.decanter.com/DWWA 上查看完整的獲獎者名單
（飲酒過量有礙身心健康，未成年請勿飲酒&酒後不開車）

[時事英文] 蘭德智庫 (RAND): 美國的未來之戰

同學來參考一下蘭德智庫對於未來十年軍事發展的Q&A!

需要最新的時事英文講義 (L10 The Future of the USA) 請按個讚和留言「Send me more breaking news, please!」。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

🇺🇸 Let’s start with the big picture. Who are the main U.S. adversaries in 2030?
　
None of our main competitors—Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and terrorist groups—are going away, and some of them will probably strengthen. China will become a more formidable threat as its economic and military influence increases. We're not going to have the same freedom of movement that we have with China now.
　
1. a more formidable threat 更為難纏的威脅
2. freedom of movement 行動自由
　
讓我們著眼大局。時至２０３０年，誰是美國的主要對手？
　
我們的主要競爭者——俄羅斯、中國、北韓、伊朗以及恐怖組織——都沒有消失，其中有些國家或組織可能會愈發強大。隨著經濟與軍事影響力的增長，中國將成為更加難纏的威脅。屆時面對中國的我們，將不再擁有今日的行動自由。
　
★★★★★★★★★★★

🇺🇸 How do you see the global economic picture changing?
　
The United States and its allies are going to lose some of their share of global economic output. China is growing, and growing at the expense of our allies, particularly the Europeans. If you think about economics as the underlying bedrock that allows you to produce military capabilities, that trend is the opposite of what you want to see.
　
3. global economic output 全球經濟產出
4. at the expense of 以……為代價
5. the underlying bedrock 潛在的基石
6. military capabilities 軍事能力
　
如何看待全球經濟情勢的轉變？
　
美國與盟邦將喪失其於全球經濟產出的部分份額。中國正以犧牲我們盟邦——尤其是歐洲——的方式成長。若你將經濟視為提升軍事能力的基礎，那麼此一趨勢與你所見者恰好相反。
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
🇺🇸 How will environmental change play into this?
　
First, it will have an effect on where we can base. Some of our installations around the world are in places that will be threatened by climate change—they're in low-lying areas or flood plains, for example. But second, it also will have a destabilizing effect. Some of the places that will be hardest hit by droughts or rising sea levels tend to have weaker governments. That could increase domestic instability, and more domestic instability can lead to terrorism and civil war, the kind of sub-state conflict that we've been dealing with for the last decade or so.
　
7. base (v.) 以某處作為主要地點；將某地設為總部
8. installation （尤指用於軍事目的的）設施
9. low-lying areas 低窪地區
10. flood plains 洪泛平原；泛濫平原；澇原
11. a destabilizing effect 一個不穩定的因素
12. be hard hit by… 受到……的重創
13. increase domestic instability 增加國內動盪
14. lead to 導致
15. sub-state conflict 次國家衝突
　
環境變遷將如何產生影響？
　
首先，它將影響我們基地的選址。我們遍布全球的某些設施處於受氣候變遷威脅的地方——位於低窪地區或澇原。但第二，氣候變遷也會造成不穩定的因素。在一些受嚴重乾旱或海平面上升衝擊的地方，其政府通常較為軟弱。這可能會加劇國內動盪，而更多的國內動盪會導致恐怖主義與內戰，此類次國家衝突是我們近十年來一直在處理的問題。
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
🇺🇸 What role will domestic politics in the United States play?
　
We've seen a steady trend over the last several decades toward increasing polarization among the U.S. electorate. That creates some significant constraints. Just to get the defense bill passed requires a bipartisan consensus, and that will face increasing pressure in the years to come. We're also seeing a second major trend, which is a growing push to retrench, to pull the U.S. back from a global posture.
　
16. a steady trend 一個穩定的趨勢
17. increasing polarization 日益加劇的兩極化
18. the U.S. electorate 美國選民
19. a bipartisan consensus 兩黨的共識
20. retrenchment strategy 緊縮策略
　
美國的國內政治將扮演什麼角色？
　
在過去的幾十年裡，我們看到一個穩定的趨勢——美國選民的兩極化日益加劇。這形成了一些重要的約束。為使國防法案通過，便需兩黨的共識，而在未來的幾年中，其所面臨的壓力將愈發龐大。我們還看見了第二個重要趨勢，即緊縮的聲音持續增長，要求美國自全球態勢中抽身。
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
🇺🇸 What should the United States be doing to prepare for 2030?
　
We probably need more longer-range platforms, for example, but there's really no silver bullet. The bigger finding is that the United States is going to increasingly face a grand-strategic choice. It can double down on its role for the last three decades as the world's leading superpower, in which case it needs to spend more on defense and defense capabilities than it has.
　
21. longer-range platforms 更長程載臺
22. face a grand-strategic choice 面對巨大的戰略選擇
23. double down on sth 加倍努力；決心完成
24. the world's leading superpower 世界領先的超級大國
25. defense capabilities 防衛能力

美國應為２０３０年做怎樣的準備？
　
舉例來說，我們可能需要更多更長程的載臺，惟確無萬靈丹。更大的發現是，美國所面臨的巨大戰略選擇將愈發增加。美國可以加倍努力，扮演好自己在過去三十年裡，領導世界的超級大國角色。如此，美國便需要在國防與防衛能力上投入更多的資金。
　
《RAND》完整內容：https://bit.ly/33Nb7mX

★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
L1-9 時事英文講義：https://bit.ly/2XmRYXc
　
時事英文大全：http://bit.ly/2WtAqop
　
如何使用「時事英文」：https://bit.ly/3a9rr38

★★★★★★★★★★★★

🌎 對新聞英文和批判性思考有興趣的同學也可以參考我的課程：
https://bit.ly/3eTHIvH

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[HAS MCDONALD'S CONQUERED ASIA?]

If McDonald's were a country, it's revenue would make it the 105th largest economy in the world, surpassing the GDP of Estonia, Cambodia & Afghanistan.

The number of McDonald's employees worldwide would be more than the entire population of Iceland, Barbados and Samoa.

It's a big company, but it wasn't always that way.

McDonald's was founded on May 15th, 1940 in San Bernardino, California - that's over 77 years ago - and has since expanded to a 120 countries and territories around the world, serving 68 million customers each day.

It took 27 years for the first McDonald's to appear outside of the US, and 31 years to make it's way to a second continent.

THIS continent was Asia, and in this video I'm going to take you through the next 46 years of McDonald's' Asian ascension.

So, which Asian country was the FIRST to open a McDonald's? What did McDonalds have to sacrifice in order compete with local markets? And how much of Asia is there still left to conquer, as of today?

We'll get into all of that, so grab a double cheeseburger (maybe some fries), and we'll explore every Asian country to have ever had a McDonald's.

Welcome to McAsia.

Some notable McDonald's branches in Asian countries are:
- McDonald's Japan for being the first Asian McDonald's ever.
- McDonald's Singapore for having the oldest McDonald's employee worldwide at 93 years old.
- McDonald's Malaysia for being the first McDonald's in a Muslim-majority country.
- McDonald's Turkey for being the first McDonald's in West Asia (Middle East).
- McDonald's South Korea to be the first to sell alcohol (beer).
- McDonald's Russia for having the largest McDonald's outlet in Asia in Pushkin Square, Moscow.
- McDonald's Israel for having the healthiest McDonald's in the world.
- McDonald's Saudi Arabia for oddly taking out a full page ad in a Saudi national newspaper swearing loyalty to the new crown prince.
- McDonald's India for being the first McDonald's in South Asia, as well as having the first vegetarian McDonald's in the world.
- McDonald's Pakistan for having served the Taliban at one point in time.
- McDonald's Georgia for having the chain's most exquisite outlet.
- McDonald's Iraq for only having ONE McDonald's outlet for the US Army stationed in Baghdad.
- McDonald's Kazakhstan for being the first McDonald's in Central Asia.

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Matryoshka dolls are one of the most known symbols of Russian culture and by no means a super cute idea for a costume if you want to stand out at an event or party! In this tutorial I'll show you how you can easily transform into a big eyed russian doll with tiny lips, step by step.

CONTACT LENSES
Aviory iFairy♥Green♥⌀16.00mm → http://www.speciallens.com/ifairy-avior-green-contact-lenses/

For those big round eyes, I'm going to put in circle lenses. However, this is optional and the makeup will look dolly also without em!

SKIN
Get a good camouflage cream that is a tad bit lighter than your skin and apply under your eyes, nose, forehead and chin. This is to conceal and highlight at once! Make sure you cover all dull and dark spots. We need to get our skin matt and even.

Now get your normal day to day liquid base foundation and apply a sheer layer over your face to even out the colour and doll up your complexion!

Since this base makeup is quite thick, let it set for 3-5 minutes. Finish with light dabs of sheer powder so you don't disturb the colour and texture of the foundation.

EYES
Luckily, The eye makeup looks more elaborate than it actually is. Wet an eyeshadow brush and create a white base over your lid. For the colour white, I recommend to use a high pigmented eye shadow but if you don't have one then just apply 2 or 3 layers more,but give the layers at least 1 minute time to dry.
With a dry brush, apply copper up to your brow bone. Colour one third of your lower lid, too. Now, with the same colour but using a WET brush, mark your brow bone. Colours applied with a wet brush come out more intense. The stroke doesn't have to be perfect as long as you're following the natural shape of your brow bone.

On a dry angled brush, apply a dark chocolate colour and draw over the line on your brow bone. Make the end of the stroke end faintly by smudging it slightly.

Wet the brush once again and apply a finishing layer of copper.

EYELASHES
Matryoshka dolls have long eyelashes, emphasising their youth and femininity.
Apply dark and dramatic, or even theatrical under eye lashes. Glue them from the middle of your eye up to your brow bone.

Now we'll need long upper eyelashes with a flexible lash band, Stick them on your eye lid, close to the crease. Don't blink until the glue has completely dried!

Enlarging your eyes this dramatically will probably get your brows out of proportion, so make sure to elongate them as well!

One thing almost all Russian dolls have in common are their delicate, teeny tiny rosebud lips. Wet a small brush, choose the most intense scarlet in your makeup box, and with great care, follow your lip's silhouette. Let the brush slip at your mouths corner to create a wing so it looks like you're smiling. But if you're not in the mood, you can let the wings point downwards and be a grumpy matryoshka instead! :)

Pat the same colour you used for your lips on your cheek apples and blend until there are no clear edges to be recognised.

HAIR

If your hair is long then this style will be super simple. Just twist a braid for each side of your hair. Pull the ends up to the top of your head and fix all areas well with bobby pins.

All that's left to do now is to cover your head with a shawl and tie a ribbon! Here I'm wearing a real Russian hand painted Pavlovo shawl like a real babushka! Other patterns I recommend for the Russian doll look are POLKA DOT, LACE or a simple red scarve looks cute too! I hope you enjoyed this tutorial and maybe you're ready to start your own transformation into a cute matryoshka!

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