สรุปเศรษฐกิจไทย ย้อนหลัง 35 ปี /โดย ลงทุนแมน
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ตอนนี้สงคราม Covid-19 ในประเทศไทยดูเหมือนจะใกล้จบลง...
Continue ReadingSummary of Thai economy 35 years back / by Investing Man.
In fact, before Covid-19, the Thai economy has slowed growth.
The Covid-19 outbreak certainly makes our economy worse.
Now the Covid-19 war in Thailand seems to be close to ending.
But the economic war we are facing seems to never end easily.
How interesting is this? Invest man will tell you about it.
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One of the important beginnings that made Thailand's economy grow in the past. Happened in July. B.E. 1985
When the US that was a huge trade deficit, wanted to reduce USD in comparison to major currency such as Japanese yen and Western Germany's mark, that incident led to Plaza Accord deal.
Even Thailand doesn't directly contribute to such things, but the weakening of US dollars has greatly positively affected the economy of Thailand.
At that time, Thailand has a baht bankrupted with 10 currency basket of the world's main currency. But over 80 % is tied to the USD. This is why the export sector of Thailand has an anime. Let's go too.
Moreover, Japanese yen is heavier than it hits the country's export sector.
This makes the government and private sector of Japan need to look for potential manufacturing bases to do exports, especially in countries where there is no higher wage costs.
While the unrest is neat because the war between Vietnam and Cambodia has resulted in Thailand to become the top choice of Japan and many countries.
Foreign direct investment comes into Thailand to create a phenomenon called the decade of growth of Thailand.
Eastern Seaboard Development Area Development Project is also available for heavy industrial development to create economic value for Thailand in the long term.
This story is why during 1987-1996, the Thai economy grows on average 9.3 % per year, especially in 1988 that has reached 13.3 % level.
This story makes many people say that Thailand will become the 5th tiger of Asia or countries where the economy is rapidly evolving like Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. These 4 countries have become now developed countries.
But this kind of picture that many people hope to happen to Thailand again. It seems to be faded.
Because in the past 10 years, Thai economy has likely slowed down continuously.
Year 2010-2014 GDP Thailand grows on average 3.9 % per year.
Year 2015-2019 GDP Thailand grows on average 3.4 % per year.
The latest in 1 quarter, 2020 Thai economy is 1.8 % negative and it's quite certain that the 2th quarter is ending. Thai economy will be heavily negative because of losing tourists and social distances.
Year 2019 export sector worth 7.6 trillion baht or around 45 % of GDP value.
The income from foreign tourists is worth 1.9 trillion baht or around 11 % of GDP.
The competitiveness of these 2 industries is also based on the movement of Baht.
Now the baht is getting heavier again. Many people are concerned that it will affect future export and tourism income. Even Covid-19 situation in Thailand will look better.
Even the Bank of Thailand is trying to take care of the money from being too hard by selling Baht and buying US dollars.
The evidence is that the Bank of Thailand's international reserve capital has risen more than $ 10,000 million in March to May this year, but it seems that the baht continues to rise.
Of course, the hardness of the baht is both good and bad.
But for Thailand relying on exports and tourism in a greater proportion, it seems to be negatively affecting the Thai economy in the overview.
In the past, we often hear news that many companies gradually close business. Many companies reduce investment. Due to not being able to tolerate the economic downturn, we see increasing number of unemployed countries.
End of quarter 1/2019 There are 346,480 unemployed people in Thailand.
End of quarter 1/2020 There are 391,770 unemployed people in Thailand.
When combined with new graduates entering the labour market, around 400,000 people may increase the number of unemployed in the future.
Information from the industrial department indicates that the number of licensed and informed companies are likely to decrease.
First 4 months of 2019 number of 1,054 Factory
First 4 months of 2020 number of 876 Factory
Moreover, foreign direct investment, which is an investment in the real economic sector through bringing resources, manufacturing, labor and technology into destination countries. Most of which are long-term investments for Thailand are likely to slow down since 2018
Year 2018 Foreign direct investment equals 426,749 million Baht.
Year 2019 Foreign direct investment equals 196,350 million Baht.
Specifically, the investment from Japan in 2019 is reduced to just 79,264 million baht below the level of hundred thousand million baht for the first time since 2015
It seems that the situation of Thailand's Covid-19 is slowly getting better, but there are many things that are challenging the country's economy.
How do we get the country back to growth
How can we make our country move beyond developing countries into developed countries?
To make Thai people live better lives.
Which questions these questions.
It's a question that has been in the heart of many Thai people for long
And it should continue to be the question of our children's generation..
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References
-https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=TH
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Map_Ta_Phut_Industrial_Estate
-https://www.nesdc.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=10212&filename=QGDP_report
-http://tradereport.moc.go.th/Report/Default.aspx?Report=TradeBalanceMonthly&Lang=Th
-https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=80&language=TH
-https://www.diw.go.th/hawk/content.php?mode=spss63
-https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=653&language=thTranslated
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