關於 business opportunity assessment ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

John Huber 最新在 Graham and Doddsville 的訪談提到一點跟我在去年 12/31 總結的相似

“One of the mistakes that I've made over time is
being too conservative, I think. Conservatism, for
good reason, is considered a virtue in the value investing community. I'm a conservative investor by
nature, but there are drawbacks to being too conservative. I just read a note by my friend, Rob Vinall who runs a firm called RV Capital. He made a great point –banks that are aggressive when underwriting loans end up going bust, but so do banks that are too conservative over time,because they’ll miss writing the loans that are most profitable, which is needed to pay for the inevitable
mistakes. As investors, our goal should be accuracy when evaluating a business. You don't do yourself
any favors by being overly conservative at the expense of being accurate... You should demand a margin of safety over an accurate assessment of the business and its value, but your goal should not be to conservatively analyze the business, your goal should be to accurately analyze the business...I've noticed that a lot of my mistakes have come from when I've been conservative at the expense of accuracy, and this has carried a heavy opportunity cost over the years.”

價投的基因讓我們很保守，讓我們不太虧錢，但另一方面這個基因也限制了我們。我們的目標不是很保守的去評估公司，而是盡量正確的去評估公司。

Pabrai 在訪談的時候拿 Google 為例，他說當時他把 Google 的 Other bet 都當零，就當白送。但這樣就讓他對價格的區間守得很死，換句話說就是太保守。

平衡很重要，太保守、衝太快都不好

Airbnb ธุรกิจห้องเช่ารายวัน 1 ล้านล้านบาท / โดย เพจลงทุนแมน
ตอนนี้เวลาทุกคนไปเที่ยวต่างประเทศ
จะเริ่มได้ยินคำถามกันบ่อยว่า ทำไมไม่ลองจอง Airbnb หล่ะ?

Airbnb คือ ธุรกิจบริการออนไลน์ ที่เป็นตัวกลาง ให้คนนำเสนอที่พักของตนเอง ให้ผู้ที่สนใจมาพัก ได้โดยตรง โดยปัจจุบันมีที่พักหลายประเภทที่แตกต่างจากโรงแรมทั่วไป ตั้งแต่ บ้าน ห้อง เต้นท์ ยันปราสาท เลยทีเดียว
...Continue ReadingAirbnb. Room Business. Daily Rental 1 trillion baht / by page. Invest man.
Now time for everyone to travel abroad
Going to start hearing a lot of questions why not try airbnb booking?

Airbnb is an intermediary online service business to offer their own accommodation directly to those who are interested. There are many different types of accommodation from the common hotels from the tent to castle.

Many people might be surprised who dares to open a home for strangers to live? But with the concept of sharing resources that makes a huge value of business opportunity.

Back in 2007, Brian Chesky and Joe Gebbia didn't have money to pay for their own room in San Francisco, so they had an idea to make money by sharing room for other people to stay with breakfast, so they opened a website called airbedandbreakfast.com

It turns out that there are 3 people who made $ 240 immediately. Both of them thought that the idea that people share their accommodation with others should be able to go. So I invite Nathan Blecharczyk. Another friend to develop the website.

In the beginning, everyone was confused with this idea. The first time they launched a business at a event. It turns out that there were only 2 people who booked the room until months. Income hasn't hit the target. Only $ 200 per week.

They analyze why people still don't dare to stay. The Photos that the post place owner looks worse than reality and still don't see how it's better than staying at a hotel.

So the team has been taking photos of new accommodation and hiring freelancing photographers around the world to make magazine named pineapple. The user experience from both rental and guests.

This is an important turning point because review is expanding fast in the online world. It is composed to have a celebrity to suggest the difference from the hotel that you will truly absorb the culture of local people. It makes business start well.

At this point, since the old name keeps going, they changed the website name to airbnb.com, which is another point that makes it easier for people to talk about.

How much does airbnb earn now?

As a service provider, Airbnb Rental, there are 2 MILLION ROOMS FOR RENT. There are more than 60 million users around the world. There are 500,000 people staying per night. Additional rooms will be charged from the owner. 6-12 % including about 3 % fee

Year 2015 earn $ 900 million loss of $ 150 million.
Year 2016 earn $ 1,700 million profit of $ 100 million.
Year 2017 is expected to earn $ 2,800 million. Profit of $ 450 million.

From a loss, finally turned to a huge profit.

Compared to seniors in the industry like priceline who focus on hotels more than 2016, this company has over 285 million reservations. only 800,000 rooms per night. Income of $ 10,743 million profit of $ 10,743 million profit. 2135 million

Airbnb may still be much smaller than priceline, but it may soon step up to be rivals.

Who invested in this company?

With such growth, it will receive a lot of attention from venture capital such as google capital, horizon ventures, y combinator, Sequoia Capital, China broadband capital, including famous stars like Ashton Kutcher.

The current company investment is up to $ 3,000 million. Now has an assessment of up to $ 30,000 MILLION OR EQUIVALENT TO 1 trillion baht compared to Thailand companies in Thailand, as much as market cap. T.T. The largest company in Thailand

Anyone who wants to buy airbnb shares, I might have to wait because the company says they are preparing to do ipo but it's not rushing.

Airbnb is a great example for building a business from ideas. So if anyone has such a cool idea, don't be afraid to start. Finally, we might be successful like Airbnb..Translated

【玳瑚師父客人見證】《以玄學育兒的靈驗》
The Positive Transformations Of My Children (English version below)

文 / 招甚有 Written by Gordonn Chiu

以我現在所擁有的知識，如果我的生命可以從頭再來的话，我會毫不猶豫願意地做。

我從小生活就很艱苦，而往往遇到困境的時候，我们都会怪别人，但不會把枚頭指向自己。

玳瑚師父，就如暴风雨中的一盏明燈，引导我離開險境， 走向正道。

我自幼就很頑皮，常常闖禍鬧事，我也當然常常被處罰。現在回頭想想，真的是咎由自取。或許是因果让我的孩子也變成這樣。除了我父母那樣的教导方式以外，我不知道還有什麼方式的教导。但是經過十二年的打和罵，甚至用藤条，我真心地说：這個方法是完全不管用的。

我和我的太太已經志穷计尽了。

我们應該如何引导我们的孩子，走好他们的人生之路，而不需要受我们所经过的痛苦呢？

當我得到我的人生藍圖後，我的下一步就是想幫助我的太太和孩子。

我從來没有想過，玄學和佛法可以用来改变一个人。

經過一個月的施行后，我是一个活生生的見證，證明玄學真的能够創造奇蹟。如果再加上佛法的運用，成績更不得了。

以下是我在一個月後，所看的改变。請注意，我孩子之前完全不是這樣的⋯⋯

1) 我現在有很乖巧聽話的孩子。他们非常尊敬长辈，家長及他们的朋友。

2) 孩子兄妹倆比以前更和睦相處，而不會天天争吵。以前他們不讓彼此進入自己的房間，但現在他们能够共用一張書桌，并且好声好氣地交谈，还交换發生在自己身上的故事。這对我來說是一项奇蹟。

3) 我的兒子昨天告诉我, 我已經有一整个月没有用藤条来鞭打他了。以前我每天都打他，因為這曾經是我唯一能够叫他做事情的方法。我告訴他，這很奇怪，因為我根本没想到要用藤条。現在我和我的太太，只要好声好气地叫他做事情，他都會聽從。

4) 在家裡，已经很少，甚至没有喊叫聲或哭闹聲了。这是我一直想要的一个家庭环境。

5) 孩子，现在都会自动自发地完成自己的功課。這對我来说是一项奇蹟，因為我和我太太都常常不在家。

6) 最神奇的是，昨天我其中一个孩子竟然坦誠地承認自己的過失。他清晨六点偷偷用了我的手機，发短訊給他美國的朋友，才回去入眠。這番話，是來之一位十二年裡，常常被逮到卻還要說謊的小孩口中。

一個快樂的家庭，能使你的工作效率提昇，也会减低你每天生活中所承受的壓力。

眼看著玳瑚師父在我的生活中，所创造的種種奇蹟，我常常都觉得很奇妙。十二年以来，我和我太太的教导方式一点成效都没有, 玳瑚師父卻在一個月裡面，完全改變了我孩子的性格。真是奇蹟啊！

我剛剛从玳瑚師父那兒，取到我两個孩子的八字人生藍图，也花了一个小时向我的兒子講解了他的人生藍图和他本人的性格。連一個十二歲的小男生也覺得驚訝，玳瑚師父对他的性格是多么的了解。

身為父母，我覺得我們請玳瑚師父幫他看八字，是我們這一生能送给孩子最大的礼物，让他知道他人生該往哪里走，如何贡献给社会和行善，才會圓滿他的一生。

這是一份，我们都應該給我們孩子的礼物。

我曾經看了很多所謂的風水专家，也給了他們上千的酬勞，卻一點效果都没有，有时還弄巧反拙。我尋找多年，才终于找到玳瑚師父，一位有一百巴仙準确度和能改變你人生的師父，我终于找到了。他不賣任何風水吉祥物品，也不開店来招生意，只靠他的學術和準确度來幫人。這，才是真正的師父。

如果你有這个緣份遇見他，請珍惜。要記得對他有礼貌，和要尊敬一个能够改变你一生的師父。

千萬不要占他的便宜。有些人觉得玳瑚師父很善良，就想要討折扣或要求師父免費幫他們。捫心自問，如果你的老板明天叫你免费做工或减薪水，你願意嗎？我们在工作里，累積的经验多，自然就薪水高，更何况我認為玳瑚師父是世界第一的玄学高手。他給我的是無價的知識。千萬不要對他吝啬，否则你就不配改变你的命。

我很感激玳瑚師父幫我全家改命。謝謝玳瑚師父無私的教导和勸告。

（附上一張兄妹倆牽手過馬路的照片，在過往是極度不可能會出現的景像。）

⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯

If I have a chance to start my life all over again, I would do it without a 2nd thought with the knowledge i now have. Life has been hard since young and usually, we always blame others during times of adversity but never point the finger back at ourselves.

玳瑚師父 Master Dai Hu is like the lighthouse in the stormy weather, guiding me away from danger and towards the right path.

I was a naughty kid from young, always getting into mischief and trouble. Needless to say I always got punished which I deserved 100%, now that I think back.

Maybe it's karma that my own kids turned out the same way. I didn't know of any other way of discipline except the way that most parents of my era did. After 12 years of using this method of shouting, scolding, punishment and even using the rod, I can truly say that it doesn't work at all.

My wife and I were at our wits end. How can we help our children to navigate through this world without undergoing the pain that we went through?

After I obtained the road map of my life, the next step was to help my wife and children as well. I had never thought that Chinese Metaphysics and Buddhism could be used to change a person.

After about 1 month of implementation, I am a living testimonial that Chinese Metaphysics works wonders. If you add in Buddhism, the results are even more fantastic.

These are my current results after about only 1 month of implementation (Please note my kids were the total opposite before):

1) I have very well behaved kids now. They are respectful of elders, parents and their friends.

2) They get along better with each other now. Instead of fighting daily. They didn't even allow each other to enter the other sibling's room. Now they can share the same study table and talk nicely to each other and even share stories. It's a miracle to me.

3) My son told me yesterday that I haven't touched the rod for the entire last 1 month. That used to be the only way I could get him to do anything and it was a daily affair. I told him that it's funny but using the cane did not even come to my mind. Now my wife and I just need to ask him nicely to do things and he usually complies.

4) There is little to no shouting or crying in the house and it is the home environment that I have always wanted.

5) The kids' homework are almost always done, which is a miracle as my wife and I are mostly not at home.

6) More amazingly is that I got a confession of a misdeed yesterday from one of my kids. He came to me confessing that he woke up at 6am to text his friend in USA then he went back to sleep after a while. This came from a boy who used to lie even when caught red handed. Not once in 12 years was there ever a voluntary confession.

A happy home increases your productivity at work and reduces the stress you encounter in daily life. I am consistently amazed by 玳瑚師父 Master Dai Hu. 12 years of bad teachings with zero results by us and it all changed within 1 month of implementation. He is amazing beyond belief.

Right now, I am getting the road map of my children's life paths. I spent an hour just now sharing with my son his life plan and his current character traits. Even a 12-year-old boy was amazed at how accurate 玳瑚師父 Master Dai Hu's assessment of him was.

As a parent, I think this is the most precious gift I can ever give him. The life path towards his highest potential, and how to be an asset towards society through charitable and kind acts. This is a gift we should all give our children.

I have known many so-called Masters and paid them thousands of dollars with zero or most times negative results. I have searched many years and I am truly blessed to find 玳瑚師父 Master Dai Hu with his 100% accuracy and life changing remedies. He sells no Feng Shui or religious artifacts, nor has a shop to draw business, which means he is all about skill and accuracy.

Fate shall determine if you can meet him. If you even have the opportunity to speak with him, please cherish it. Be very polite and respectful as he can change your entire life in wonderful and amazing ways. But never ever take advantage of him.

Some people expect free advice or discounts just because he is kind. How would you like it if your Boss told you tomorrow to work for free or take a paycut? Even in your own job, you get paid more as you gain experience. Moreover, I rate Master Dai Hu as the No. 1 Master of Chinese Metaphysics. The advice he gives is priceless to me. If you want to be stingy, then I don't think you deserve to change your life.

I am glad I have him to advise my entire family and change my fate. Thank you 玳瑚師父 Master Dai Hu for your selfless teachings and advice.

(Here's a photo of my children crossing the road while holding hands. A scene like this is very unlikely, a rare sight to behold indeed.)

www.masterdaihu.com/以玄學育兒的靈驗/